After the 30-share Sensex soared to a fresh record high in the morning trade, extending yesterday’s rally, Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse says that a weaker rupee is aiding the the large companies in the index. “In the Nifty 50 and BSE 100, a very large proportion of revenue comes from outside India. That revenue is actually being boosted by or rather the expectations of those are being boosted by a weaker rupee. Some of those sectors are actually seeing earnings upgrade in rupee terms and that is a big supporting factor,” Neelkanth Mishra, MD and India economist and strategist told in an interview with ET Now.
Apart from a weaker domestic currency, Neelkanth Mishra said that investors are moving towards safer stocks given political and global uncertainties. According to the expert, there is tremendous uncertainty around China, impact of trade wars, the first-half slowdown in Japan and Europe and whether we will see a recovery in the second half.
“People are starting to move towards safer stocks. What we observed was that while Nifty and Sensex have done much better than the small and midcap indices, even within the Nifty, the performance is really concentrated in top 10 stocks. These stocks have contributed to 218% of Nifty’s gains,” Mishra observed, adding that the current rally amounts to the second most concentrated performance in the last 12 months.
In the interview, The highest was in 2015. “So, it is a very polarised performance. It is partly because of the rupee impact and mostly because of risk aversion among investors,” he said. So where exactly is the stock market headed from here on? “I do not think this type of reversal actually happens with the largecap stocks coming down. It generally happens because the other stocks start to do well. But yes, that potential exist. The risk appetite reversal can actually mean that some of the high PE and safer stocks start to come down in absolute terms,” he noted.