Weekly F&O expiry: Nifty likely to hit 16,000, Bank Nifty 36,200; Expected range, trading guide, outlook

On the weekly F&O expiry day, Nifty 50 is likely to hit the 16,000-mark while Bank Nifty might surpass 36,200 level.

Nifty, Bank Nifty, weekly options expiry, F&O trading,
Analysts expect a breakout from consolidation in Nifty and see the possible trading range of 15,800-16,000

On the weekly F&O expiry day, Nifty 50 is likely to hit the 16,000-mark while Bank Nifty might surpass 36,200 level. Analysts expect a breakout from consolidation in Nifty and see the possible trading range of 15,800-16,000 in the index. Ahead of weekly options expiry, Nifty 50 made a record closing high of 15,879.65, while Bank Nifty ended over half a per cent higher at 35,771.30 levels. India VIX, the volatility index, cooled off half a per cent to settle at 12.21 levels on Wednesday.

Check LIVE prices: Nifty 50

On Nifty options, the maximum Call OI is at 16,000 strike with 90,361 contracts, followed by 15,900 strike price. While maximum Put OI is at 15,800, followed by 15,700. Call writing was seen at 16,100 and 15,950 strikes, while Put writing was seen at 15,800, then 15,750 level strikes. Call unwinding was at 16,200 and 16,050 strikes and put unwinding was seen at 15,200. For Bank Nifty options, the highest open interest on the call side in the weekly expiry is at 36,000, followed by 36,500 strike; while the highest OI on the put side is at 35,000-35,500 strike.

Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities

On 7 July 2021, Nifty closed at the all time high level of 15879, with a gain of more than 60 points. Nifty has been witnessing put writing at 15700 strike for last few days and 20 days EMA is also placed at 15700 odd levels. So the significance of 15700 as support in Nifty is high. Bank Nifty has closed at the highest point since 9 March 2021. In the July series, we have seen Bank Nifty outperforming Nifty and we expect it to continue from here as well. Put Call ratio is placed at 1.25 odd levels, which can be considered on the lower side. As far as weekly expiry is concerned, we expect the Nifty to break out from consolidation, which was held for the previous five weeks. Nifty is expected to close above 16000, while Bank Nifty could settle above 36200 levels in 8 July weekly expiry. Traders should adopt a long strategy for tomorrow’s expiry.

Rajesh Palviya, Vice President, Research (Head Technical & Derivatives), Axis Securities

Nifty as per the provisional data has witnessed Long Build Up with a price gain of 0.40% and increase in OI of 1.22 lakh shares compared with Tuesday, while Bank Nifty has also seen Short Covering with price gain of 0.61% & OI shedding of 0.26 lakh shares. The sentiment indicator PC Ratio (Nifty) is currently trading at 1.25 above the median line indicating positive bias. Nifty highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry scheduled on 8 July 2021, is at 16,000 (67.78 lakh) & 16100 (43.80 lakh) strikes respectively wherein writing of 9.45 lakh shares was witnessed at 16100 strike & unwinding of 8.96 lakh shares was seen at 16200 strike indicating strong resistance zone at 16100, while on the PUT side highest OI is at 15,700 (55.43 lakh) & 15,800 (64.33 lakh) strikes; wherein writing of 29.45 lakh & 14.12 lakh share was seen indicating a strong support zone. So the most probable range for the weekly expiry is likely to be between 16,100 to 15,700.

In Bank Nifty the highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry is at 36,000 (18.96 lakh), 36,500(12.89 lakh) & 37,000(12.06 lakh) strike; while on the Put side highest OI is at 35,000 (18.79 lakh) & 35,500 (15.19 lakh) strike, with 35900 acting as a pivotal level for this weekly expiry as there has been an addition of 2.59 lakh shares on CALL side & 1.49 lakh addition on PUT side suggesting that any sustained move on either side of this level will decide the trend in Bank Nifty. While on the writing front 35700 put has seen writing of 8.48Lac shares followed by 35600 put writing of 4.46 lakh shares indicating a strong support zone; overall range for Bank Nifty is likely to be between 35300-35000 to 36000-36300.

Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical Analyst, Angel Broking

Nifty started the week on a positive note, but again it faced resistance near the 15900 mark on Tuesday. Although we saw some tug of war between the bulls and the bears, the bulls clearly seem to have an upper hand as declines are getting bought into. As far as derivatives activity is concerned, we did not see any significant addition in Nifty this week, but the Bank Nifty witnessed short covering which led to its relative outperformance. FIIs formed mixed positions in the index futures, but the majority of their net positions continue to be on the long side. We witnessed good stock-specific action during the week and a lot of heavyweights too saw buying interest ahead of the weekly expiry. Hence, it seems the market is now geared up for the next leg of up move post this recent consolidation. In the options segment, highest open interest is seen at 15800 put and 16000 call which are the levels to watch for the expiry day. Considering all this evidence, we expect positive momentum on the expiry day and hence, intraday traders should look to buy at-the-money call option if Nifty trades around 15850-15870. Looking at the closing momentum today, we expect Nifty to register a new high on the weekly expiry and you never know if banking heavyweights perform well, we even may see Nifty reaching the magical figure of 16000 tomorrow itself.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Wednesday’s session saw PUT writing happening at 15750 and 15800 levels. The 15800 PUT not only saw OI addition but this level holds the maximum PUT Open Interest. The strike of 16000 continues to hold maximum Call OI followed by 15900 which holds the second-highest accumulation of Call OI. So, as per present data, the NIFTY has shown a possible trading range of 15800-16000 tomorrow. So, it can fairly be presumed that the NIFTY’s behavior against the price levels of 15900 would be crucial and may serve as an inflection point unless a tactical shift in the OI occurs.

(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. Financial Express Online does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

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First published on: 08-07-2021 at 07:42 IST