Vodafone Idea’s share price has seen sharp gains after its Q4 results announcement. The fact that the telecom major is not exactly staring at near-term bankruptcy is perhaps the single most important shift in the past six months. 

A 27% reduction in AGR dues to Rs 64,046 crore, repayments deferred entirely to FY36–FY41, and a first quarterly profit in six years have materially changed the survival maths. This can be seen in its share price action as well, rising 43% in just one month. 

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However, brokerages are divided on the road ahead. While some are betting on the long-term prospects, a few flagged limited upside potential hereon for the share price. 

Nomura downgrades Vodafone Idea

However, the international brokerage house, Nomura, still downgraded the stock to a ‘Neutral’ rating from ‘Buy’ due to limited potential upside from current levels. Nonetheless, it has raised the target price on the stock to Rs 12.6 from Rs 10, implying a 2% downside.

“We value the stock based on 14x FY28 EV/EBITDA – higher than 12x, we assign to Bharti Airtel and Jio (subsidiary of Reliance Industries), given Vodafone Idea’s higher earnings CAGR potential,” said Nomura. 

Also, the brokerage house said that it prefers Bharti Airtel among the telecom stocks.

Although Nomura still highlighted a few points in favour of Vodafone Idea, like a successful debt-capita,l raise. Secondly, industry tariff hikes and a reversal of the subscriber loss trend. Lastly, a strategic equity investment that may provide the much-needed confidence capital.

Motilal Oswal on Vodafone Idea

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has also raised the target price on Vodafone Idea to Rs 10 from Rs 9.50, but still indicates that there is a possibility of 22% downside from the current market price. 

The company management’s ambitions of double-digit revenue growth and increasing cash EBITDA 3x over FY26-29 remain a tall ask and would require several things, such as closure of the debt raise, sustained tariff hikes or a change in tariff construct, stabilisation in subscriber trends, and more rational competition in subscriber acquisition. Lastly, continuation of a benign regulatory regime, including likely relief on spectrum repayments.

“We note that not all of these variables are in management’s control. Moreover, if Vodafone Idea were to emerge as a competitive third player, we would expect peers with superior free cash flow, network, and product offerings to raise competitive intensity,” said Motilal Oswal.

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Nuvama on Vodafone Idea

Nuvama Institutional Equities raised the target price on Vodafone Idea to Rs 13.5 from Rs 10.5 on Vodafone Idea, while retaining a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. 

The company’s EBITDA margin expanded 60 bps QoQ to 43.1%, while adjusted net loss came in at Rs 5,520 crore. Capex stood at Rs 2,290 crore versus Rs 2,250 crore in Q3. KPIs like subscriber addition, ARPU and churn rates are improving, but a lot more needs to fall into place for Vodafone Idea to become an investible idea, said Nuvama.

Vodafone Idea reported decent Q4FY26 performance with revenue at Rs 113.3 billion (+0.1% QoQ). Subscriber base stabilised at 192.8 million (- 0.1 million QoQ) while ARPU grew +1.2% QoQ to Rs 174. 

Vodafone Idea’s share price performance

The share price of Vodafone Idea has risen 12.6% in the last five trading days. The stock has given a return of 43% in the last one month and 27% in the past six months. Vodafone Idea’s stock price has raised investors’ wealth by 101% over the previous 12 months.