As the 10-year US Treasury yields breached the 3% mark on Wednesday, nervousness gripped the Indian market –BSE Sensex declined 0.3%, Nifty50 slumped 0.4%, and India sovereign bond yields rose to 7.74% from 7.68%. Even as Indian markets were spooked by the development, economists say that the impact of 10-year US Treasury yield is momentary.
“For a long time, US bond yield has been hovering around this level. And after yesterday’s rise, it fell today. So we are understanding is that it is going to stay at this level and not show a lot of volatility. India markets were spooked but there is not much impact,” Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist, SBI said.
3% is a key psychological level for the benchmark US government bond. However, some analysts believe that the Fed has a lot of room to increase the interest rate and contain the yields at around this level or bring them down. Interestingly, the US stock market did not react immediately and is understood to be waiting for more data.
As for India, US bond yields are not expected to drive the market alone. “It’s going to be mix and match of many factors that may lead to a surge in India bond yields but as of now, the RBI should be panicking on just US bond yields,” Madhvi Arora of Kotak Securities said.
India’s benchmark 10-year bond started the month on a softer note at 7.3%, eased to 7.12% before springing back to 7.7% on Wednesday. But factors such as weakening rupee, high oil prices, and state government borrowing are expected to impact bond yields. “Buying interests emerged at highs, but swiftly faded away as a weakening rupee, high oil prices and sustained rise in US yields,” Radhika Rao, economist, DBS group said.
States sold less-than-planned quantum for a second consecutive week – Rs 61 billion vs planned Rs 116 billion. The central government is due to auction Rs 120 billion worth issuances across four maturities on Friday.