Titan company rating: Buy with a target price of Rs 1,250

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Published: May 11, 2019 1:45:16 AM

Titan delivered another strong quarter led by jewellery (revenue up 21%, adj. Ebit up 21%, adj. margin at 13.8%) and eyewear (20% revenue growth), while watches delivered a muted quarter.

Titan reported an in-line and another robust quarter led by 19% y-o-y growth in revenue.

Titan delivered another strong quarter led by jewellery (revenue up 21%, adj. Ebit up 21%, adj. margin at 13.8%) and eyewear (20% revenue growth), while watches delivered a muted quarter.

Management commentary was upbeat on near-term prognosis for core jewellery business and it remains confident of achieving 20% revenue guidance for FY20. Improving margin trend and focus on increasing pace of store expansion are other key triggers for jewellery segment in our view.

We have upped our EPS estimates by 2% as we bake in higher margin in jewellery and lower ETR; we have ‘Buy’ with DCF-based revised target price of Rs 1,250 (from Rs 1,130, implied target P/E multiple of 46x Mar-21 EPS justified by strong 26% EPS CAGR, 800 bps jump in RoIC and high FCF generation over FY19-21E).

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Titan reported an in-line and another robust quarter led by 19% y-o-y growth in revenue; the growth was primarily led by jewellery and eyewear, while watches had a tepid quarter. While reported Ebitda at Rs 4.56 bn was flat y-o-y, we highlight several one-offs/non-recurring items – (1) IL&FS provision of Rs 460 mn, (2) MTM inventory loss in jewellery of Rs 370 mn (likely to reverse in Q1FY20) and (3) ex-gratia for employees at Rs 340 mn; adjusted for the first two items underlying Ebitda grew 18% y-o-y to Rs 5.39 bn (a shade below our estimates); adjusted Ebitda margin dipped 10 bps y-o-y to 11.5%.

Recurring PAT (adjusted for IL&FS provision and deferred tax asset for entire IL&FS provision taken in Q4) grew 9% y-o-y to Rs 3.67 bn.

Among segments – (1) jewellery posted strong 21% y-o-y growth in revenue and adjusted Ebit growth (excluding Rs 370 mn of inventory loss) stood at 21% y-o-y with Ebit margin of 13.8%, (2) watches posted tepid growth of 7% y-o-y (flat volume growth); segmental Ebit declined 26% y-o-y to Rs 290 mn dragged by sharp 250 bps y-o-y dip in Ebit margin to 5.5% due to weaker product mix and ex-gratia provision, and (3) Eyewear delivered robust 20% y-o-y growth in revenue led by 14% SSSG.

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