The Tata Steel share price surged 4.5% today to a high of Rs 211.10, intra-day trade, on the National Stock Exchange. In fact, the stock has delivered a return of 13% in the past one month. But the rally may not be done yet. Recent brokerage reports after the Q3 results indicate that the stock has the potential to rally as much as 22% over the next 12 months.
Here is a detailed analysis of the Tata Steel share price outlook by top brokerages-
Nomura on Tata Steel
Nomura has raised the target price on Tata Steel by 2% to Rs 220 from Rs 215. The new target price implies an upside of 11.7% from the current price. The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. This came as the Tata Group firm displayed strong performance even when HRC prices are near trough levels.
The brokerage house expects the domestic blended realisation per tonne to improve 4% QoQ or Rs 2,300 per tonne in Q4 FY26. On the cost side, rising coking coal costs will impact its domestic operations. The company’s management has guided a $15 per tonne increase in cost.
“We maintain our FY27 and FY28 consolidated volume estimates, but increase our FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 4% on improved pricing,” said Nomura.
Nuvama on Tata Steel
Nuvama Institutional Equities also raised the target price on Tata Steel to Rs 189 from Rs 175, implying an upside of 4.2%. However, the brokerage still retained a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock, awaiting lower prices to re-enter the stock.
The brokerage expects Q4 FY26 standalone EBITDA per tonne to increase by Rs 1,900 per tonne QoQ, driven by higher prices and volume. Europe to remain in losses in Q4. “We are increasing FY27 and FY28 EBITDA by 5% and 7% to factor in higher steel prices and higher profits in the Netherlands,” said Nuvama.
Tata Steel posted standalone adjusted EBITDA of Rs 7,900 crore, down 4% QoQ and adjusted EBITDA per tonne of Rs 13,090 (down Rs 1,784 per tonne QoQ). Higher volume led to fixed cost absorption and partially negates the fall in steel realisation. Netherlands operations’ profitability fell while loss at UK were sustained.
JM Financial on Tata Steel
The third brokerage that raised the target price on Tata Steel is JM Financial. The domestic broker has raised the target price to Rs 240 from Rs 215. The new target price indicates that the stock might rise by roughly 22% over the next 12 months.
Tata Steel reported consolidated EBITDA of Rs 8,270 crore, marginally above the brokerage’s estimates of Rs 8,000 crore. Indian operations EBITDA came in at Rs 8,250 crore, above JM Financial’s estimates of Rs 7,900 crore – implying an EBITDA per tonne of Rs 13.7k per tonne, down sequentially on lower realisations. Tata Steel Europe reported a negative EBITDA of $19 million compared to a positive $17 million in Q2.
It is expected that the coking coal consumption cost movement in Q4 FY26 will be $15 per tonne. Indian operations are expected to witness higher NSR to the tune of Rs 2.3k per tonne (leading to improved spreads) while Netherland NSR is expected to be down Euro 33 per tonne in Q4, driven primarily by poor mix.
Tata Steel’s Indian operations spreads continue to trend up in tandem with higher steel prices, while the European region awaits CBAM/Quota cut (June), leading to sustained price hikes and trickled margins eventually. The company expects similar in the government-led ring-fencing in UK operations too.
“We revise our earnings upwards for FY27 and FY28 by 12-13% and an equivalent increase in fair value to Rs 240 per share to factor in an improved steel price outlook across regions,” said JM Financial.
Overall, the brokerages instilled their confidence in the stock after the company performed strongly on the operating front in Q3 FY26. This also led the brokerages to raise the target price. However, the rating on the stock is still, as it is waiting for triggers.
Tata Steel share price
The share price of Tata Steel has increased by over 30% in the last six months. The stock has raised investors’ wealth by 55% over the previous 12 months.