The Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (PV) shares rallied over 8% to the day’s high of Rs 366.95 on the NSE after reporting its quarterly numbers for the fourth quarter of FY26. The Q4 numbers were slightly ahead of most brokerage estimates. 

Analysts believe that the JLR volume trajectory is likely to be a key factor to watch out for in FY27. While Nuvama and JM Financial expect double-digit growth, Motilal Oswal flags margin risk in the near-term. 

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Nuvama on Tata Motors PV

Nuvama Institutional Equities raised the price target to Rs 470 from Rs 400, looking at a lift of 38.6% over the next 12 months. The brokerage has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. 

The domestic PV EBITDA rose 79% to Rs 1,770 crore, above the estimate of Rs 1,510 crore, due to scale benefits and higher PLI. JLR EBITDA fell 19%, but above estimates, aided by a better mix, reversal of emission provision and forex gains. 

“We build in revenue at 19% and EBITDA at 36% CAGR for India PV over FY26-28, driven by robust volumes, PLI benefits and better mix. Moreover, JLR revenue at 16% and EBITDA at 55% CAGR is owing to low base, launches, better scale and cost savings,” said Nuvama.

Motilal Oswal on Tata Motors PV

The company’s Q4 performance has certainly been ahead of estimates, both in India and JLR, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services. 

While the Indian PV demand outlook remains positive, the company is expected to see margin pressure in the near term, given the material surge in input costs. This led the brokerage to retain its ‘Sell’ rating on the stock, with a target price of Rs 303, implying a downside of 11% from the current market price. 

Further, JLR continues to face multiple headwinds, both on the demand and cost front. While the company has embarked on a major cost reduction initiative, it is likely to only help partially offset the current headwinds. 

JM Financial on Tata Motors PV

On the other hand, JM Financial not just raised the target price, it also upgraded the stock rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Reduce’. The brokerage house increased the price target to Rs 415 from Rs 327, an upside of 27% from the current market price. 

The turnaround at JLR post the cyberattack drove Q4FY26 EBIT margin to 9.2% (1,600 basis points QoQ), 590 bps above the brokerage’s estimates, led by operating leverage. 

Improving JLR demand outlook – stable trends in the EU/UK, growth potential in North America and resilient demand in the Middle East, despite the conflict, has been one of the reasons behind the upgrade. 

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It was helped by domestic demand momentum remains healthy with management guiding for 10% YoY industry growth in FY27. Also, a strong launch pipeline (JLR: Range Rover EV and two launches in H2FY27; domestic: Sierra EV in June 2026, along with two new nameplates and four facelifts). 

“We factor in 17% for JLR and 12% domestic FY27 YoY volume growth. Commodity cost pressure remains elevated at 5–6% of revenue, with limited passthrough so far (0.5% price hike in April 2026); however, we expect strong operating leverage and cost optimisation to support margins, with FY27E EBITDA margin of 8.3% for the domestic business and EBIT margin of 8.7% for JLR,” said JM Financial. 

Tata Motors Q4FY26 results

The automaker recorded a drop of 32% in net profit at Rs 5,783 crore in the fourth quarter of FY26, compared to Rs 8,470 crore posted in the same period a year ago. The fall in the net profit came on the back of soaring raw material costs, offset by higher sales at its luxury JLR unit. 

Its revenue from operations rose 7% to Rs 1,05,447 crore in Q4 FY26 as against to Rs 98,377 crore in Q4FY25.

Tata Motors PV share price performance

The share price of Tata Motors PV has fallen 4.88% in the last five trading days (excluding today’s gains). The stock has declined 4.23% in the past one month and more than 9% in the last six months. Tata Motors’ stock price has erased almost 14% of investors’ wealth since the demerger.