Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL’s) reported EBITDA of Rs 2.1 billion (down 7% q-o-q) 2% below our estimate and 8% below Bloomberg consensus. Both transmission volumes (25.1mmscmd, up 9% y-o-y and up 3% q-o-q) andrealised tariff (Rs 1.05/scm, down 1% q-o-q) were in-line. Operating costs were marginally higher than our estimate (due to higher system use gas charges partly offset by lower staff costs) and resulted in a small miss at the EBITDA level.
Reported PAT at Rs 123 crore (up 39% y-o-y, 14% q-o-q) was 18% ahead of our estimate. The beat was driven by higher other income at Rs 28.20 crore (vs our estimate of Rs 12.50 crore) as GSPL accounted for Rs 17 crore dividend from Gujarat Gas stake (c.26% stake).
After rulings by the appellate tribunal and the Supreme Court, the regulator has been asked to decide the tariff expeditiously. It had a deadline of December 2015 to determine the tariff for GAIL’s KG basin network and March 2016 for GAIL’s five other networks. The tariff revisions for GSPL’s network is expected to follow.
Due to the delayed notification of changes in tariff regulations (key changes are on volume divisor and prospective implementation of tariff orders), the KG-Basin tariff order has been delayed.