The price of crude oil is poised to hit the US$ 100 mark once again.
In global markets, futures for the international benchmark Brent crude, for November delivery, advanced 1%, nearing US$ 96 per barrel.
Elevated global crude prices are positive for some companies in India, while they may not be good news for many others. A vast majority of companies feel the pinch, from oil marketing companies to paint companies.
Here are a few oil stocks you can watch as crude oil prices near US$ 100 per barrel. Some could have a positive impact on margins by rising crude, while others may not.
#1 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
First on the list is ONGC’s stock. The company is the nation’s largest oil and gas exploration company, majority-owned by the Government of India.
When crude rises, the company generally receives higher realisations for each barrel produced, boosting revenue, operating profit, and cash flow.
However, ONGC’s benefit can be moderated by government pricing policies, taxes and levies on domestic crude production.
Financial Highlights: ONGC
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
| Net Sales (Rs m) | 5,499,910 | 5,608,684 | 5,550,782 |
| Operating Profit (Rs m) | 1,160,119 | 1,024,502 | 1,154,763 |
| Operating Margin % | 21.1 | 18.3 | 20.8 |
| Net Profit (Rs m) | 552,731 | 383,286 | 497,931 |
Source: Equitymaster
The first quarter of FY27 has been a strong one for ONGC, on the back of rising crude prices.
The company reported gross revenue of Rs 464.6 bn, an increase of over 45% over the corresponding quarter of the last year. On a consolidated basis, the ONGC group reported a profit after tax of Rs 65.54 bn during the first quarter of FY27.
The average crude price realisation was Rs 99.45 per barrel. According to the management, despite inflationary pressures and adverse exchange rate movements, ONGC maintained operating expenditure at a broadly similar level to the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
This reflects the impact of sustained operational initiatives and a continued focus on optimising controllable operating costs across the organisation.
Moving ahead, the company is taking steps to boost production. One of the steps is centered on renewed thrust in Western Offshore, under which ONGC is implementing one of the largest capital investment programs in the history of its Western Offshore operations with projects exceeding Rs 400 bn under various stages of execution.
These encompass pipeline replacement, reservoir, and pressure management, enhanced water injection, production system upgrades, and several field development initiatives being undertaken.
In collaboration with its technical service partner BP, encouraged by the positive outcome under the first phase of the partnership in Mumbai High, the company has now expanded the model across the entire Western Offshore portfolio.
#2 Indian Oil Corporation
Next on our list is the stock of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).
Indian Oil Corporation is India’s largest government-owned oil and gas company and plays a central role in the country’s energy sector. Established in 1959 and headquartered in New Delhi, it’s engaged in refining crude oil, transporting petroleum products, and marketing fuels across India.
IOC is generally negatively affected by rising crude prices because crude is its key refinery input. If petrol and diesel prices do not rise proportionately, marketing margins can shrink. Higher crude can also create inventory losses if prices subsequently fall.
Financial Highlights: Indian Oil
| Year Ending | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
| Net Sales (Rs m) | 6,714,683 | 6,568,489 | 6,673,782 |
| Sales Growth % | -8.3 | -2.2 | 1.6 |
| Operating Profit (Rs m) | 794,886 | 395,569 | 812,709 |
| Net Profit (Rs m) | 431,612 | 137,888 | 436,773 |
Source: Equitymaster
Rising crude prices are beginning to affect Indian Oil. The company, for Q1 FY27, reported a net loss of Rs 26.61 bn, compared with a net profit of Rs 113.78 bn in the preceding quarter (Q4 FY26) and profit after tax of Rs 56.89 bn in the corresponding quarter of FY26.
While the global environment remains uncertain, the management said the company maintains a strong emphasis on long-term strategic growth initiatives, aimed at strengthening its core businesses, expanding capabilities across the energy value chain, and supporting India’s growing energy requirements.
The major refining and petrochemical expansion projects across Panipat, Barauni, Gujarat, and Paradip are at advanced stages of execution and are targeted for completion during FY27.
Phase wise commissioning of process units, utilities, and offsite facilities is being undertaken in a structured manner to enable progressive capacity build-up and integration.
The Panipat Refinery expansion is expected to be completed by December 2026, Barauni by December 2026, and Gujarat by November 2026.
#3 BPCL
Next on the list is the stock of Bharat Petroleum Corporation.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is one of India’s largest integrated oil companies, with three refineries — Mumbai, Kochi, and Bina. It also has a large fuel-retailing, LPG, aviation-fuel, and lubricants business.
Like any other oil marketing company, BPCL is negatively affected by rising crude prices because crude is its key refinery input. The impact could be severe if crude prices rally sharply and retail prices of fuel are not hiked.
Financial Highlights: BPCL
| Year Ending | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
| Net Sales (Rs m) | 3,891,735 | 3,800,262 | 3,876,357 |
| Sales Growth % | -5.7 | -2.4 | 2.0 |
| Operating Profit (Rs m) | 463,168 | 280,861 | 445,009 |
| Net Profit (Rs m) | 268,588 | 133,366 | 258,435 |
Source: Equitymaster
Due to elevated crude prices, BPCL reported losses in Q1FY27. Moving forward, the company is taking active steps to enhance operational efficiency during the current West Asian conflict.
Due to disruptions in tied-up term crude volumes, BPCL proactively optimised its crude sourcing by significantly increasing spot crude purchases, with the spot percentage rising to almost 69% in Q1 FY27 from 44% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
As per the management, the company also diversified its sourcing outside the Strait of Hormuz, exploring multiple geographies, increasing Russian crude grades to 38% of its total procurement in Q1FY27. The company also procured 2 new crude grades from Venezuela and Angola.
The procurement strategy was implemented by overcoming multiple hurdles, including vessel availability, freight placement, and insurance.
On the capex front, despite the challenging external environment, the management said the company made steady progress across its major planned capital projects under Project Aspire. Majorly at Bina Petrochemical and Refinery expansion project, the company achieved a cumulative progress of 30.7% with Rs 59 bn incurred and Rs 300 bn already committed.
The geopolitical situation has impacted the supply chain, procurement, and execution of the project, but there is no significant impact on the critical line items.
As the global geopolitical landscape evolves, the management said its priorities are operational excellence, disciplined growth, and sustainable value creation.
Conclusion
With Brent crude approaching US$ 100, forecasting the exact impact is hard, because no one knows in which direction crude oil could move. Fundamentals should therefore remain the focus.
Upstream and downstream firms will have to respond differently to this challenge.
Investors should be cautious and weigh the risks against potential returns. Monitoring global oil trends and policy changes is essential for making informed decisions in this sector.
Happy investing.
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