2 Vijay Kedia picks crashed up to 64%. Why is he still invested?

Cut to July 2026, the picture has turned upside down. Siyaram Silk Mills closed at Rs 617 on 29^th July 2026, about 48% below its peak. Precision Camshafts closed at Rs 139 as of closing on 29^thJuly 2026, a fall of about 64% from the top. Yet the shareholding filings for the June 2026 quarter show a Kedia name on both registers. He has sat through the entire slide.

One stock fell while its profits climbed to an all-time high. The other fell while its core business kept shrinking. Anyone shopping in the “down from the top” bargain bin needs to tell these two apart. Let us take a closer look at the underlying fundamentals.

#1 Siyaram Silk Mills: Record Profits Masked by Market De-rating

Incorporated in 1978, Siyaram Silk Mills is the flagship of the Siyaram Poddar group. The company makes and markets fabrics, readymade garments and indigo dyed yarn, with a clear tilt towards menswear. Its brands include Siyaram’s, J. Hampstead, Oxemberg and Cadini. Products move through a wide dealer network, franchised retail stores and export markets.

Per the exchange filings for the quarter ending June 2026, Vijay Kedia holds a 1% stake in the company, roughly 4.5 lakh shares. The stake is currently worth Rs 28 cr. His name has been on the list since at least September 2023, when he held 1.08%. The stake has stayed at 1.00% since March 2024, which means he held through the rally into the December 2024 peak, and through the long fall after it.

The Base-Effect Distortion in Siyaram’s Growth

While the stock was losing a third of its value, the business was having its best year ever. FY26 sales came in at Rs 2,572 cr, the highest in the company’s history. Net profit hit Rs 231 cr, also a record. The March 2026 quarter alone delivered Rs 853 cr in sales and Rs 98 cr in net profit, the strongest quarter in at least three years.

Financial Year	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	5Y CAGR
Sales (Rs cr)	1,089	1,905	2,233	2,092	2,222	2,572	19%
EBITDA (Rs cr)	54	333	368	286	276	333	44%
Net Profit (Rs cr)	4	216	251	185	197	231	125%

EBITDA here refers to operating profit before other income. Please note that FY21 was the lockdown year. Sales collapsed to Rs 1,089 cr from Rs 1,699 cr in FY20, and profit was nearly wiped out at Rs 4 cr. Any growth rate computed off that base looks spectacular and tells you a skewed story. Note also that FY26 profit includes other income of Rs 83 cr, up from Rs 36 cr in FY24, largely from the company’s treasury.

A sterner test is to start the clock at FY22, once the recovery was done. On that view, profit has crawled from Rs 216 cr to Rs 231 cr in four years. That is the bear case in one line. The bull case is that momentum has clearly returned. Trailing profit growth is running at 18%, the March 2026 quarter posted a 16% operating margin, and management has guided for 12% revenue growth in FY27 on the back of a retail push through its new Zecode and Devo store formats.

Valuations and the Cost of Retail Expansion

The share price of Siyaram Silk Mills Ltd was about Rs 410 in July 2021 and as already mentioned, it closed at Rs 617 on 29^th July 2026, which is a jump of over 50% in 5 years.

Between FY24 and FY26, earnings per share rose from Rs 41 to Rs 51. Over roughly the same stretch, the price dropped by a third from its peak. The market is simply paying much less for each rupee of profit than it did in December 2024.

The stock now trades at a PE of 14x compared to the current industry median of 24x. The 10-year PE of the company is 14x again while the industry median for the same period is 16x. Return on capital employed (ROCE) is 19% and return on equity (ROE) is 15%.

Promoter holding has been parked at around 68% for years. The crowd, though, has been walking out. The shareholder count has fallen from 51,449 in September 2023 to 46,029 in June 2026. Retail investors have been selling this fall, not buying it.

But here is what you should be looking at. The June quarter is always tiny because the business leans on the festive and wedding season, so a weak Q1 headline in a few weeks should surprise nobody. Operating margin at 13% for FY26 is still well below the 17% of FY22. And borrowings have climbed from Rs 163 cr in FY23 to Rs 352 cr in FY26 as the retail expansion eats capital, with debtor days stretching to 92.

#2 Precision Camshafts: Market Dominance Meets a Shrinking Core

Incorporated in 1992 and based in Solapur, Precision Camshafts makes camshafts, the rotating part that controls the valves inside an engine. It supplies over 150 varieties for passenger vehicles, tractors, light commercial vehicles and locomotives, and is among the few companies anywhere that make all four camshaft types. Its investor presentations claim a share of close to 70% of the domestic passenger vehicle camshaft market.

The Kedia connection here is older and more complex. He first bought a 1.05% stake, in March 2023. By September 2024 his holding had grown to 2.1%. By December 2024, the month both stocks peaked, Kedia family names together held 3.15% of the company. The June 2026 filings tell a leaner story. Kedia Securities Private Limited, his investment firm, holds 1.05%, about 10 lakh shares worth around Rs 14 cr at the last close. No other Kedia name appears above the 1% disclosure line anymore. Whether the rest was sold or merely slipped below the reporting threshold, the filings do not say.

Treasury Income Papering Over Operational Cracks

Let us look at the financials to see if we can find out what is holding Kedia.

Financial Year	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	5Y CAGR
Sales (Rs cr)	709	895	1,080	1,031	865	773	2%
EBITDA (Rs cr)	61	114	111	101	82	68	2%
Net Profit (Rs cr)	-1	46	46	40	54	51	Turnaround

EBITDA here refers to operating profit before other income. The 5-year profit CAGR is marked as a turnaround because FY21 was a loss year, from where things have only gotten better for the company. Two further disclosures matter. FY26 net profit of Rs 51 cr rests on other income of Rs 62 cr, mostly earnings on the company’s cash and investments. Strip that out, and profit before tax from operations was thin. And sales have now fallen for three straight years, from Rs 1,080 cr in FY23 to Rs 773 cr in FY26, a drop of 28%.

The long view is harsher still. A decade ago, this was a 27% operating margin business. FY26 came in at 9%. The European subsidiary MFT has gone through insolvency and no longer forms part of the group, closing a painful overseas chapter. Return on equity over the last three years has averaged 4.4%.

64% Discount Still Carrying a 54x Premium

The share price of Precision Camshafts was about Rs 109 in July 2021 and as of closing on 29^th July 2026 it was Rs 139.

However, as already mentioned, the stock is currently trading at a discount of about 64% from its all-time high.

As for the valuations, the stock is currently trading at a PE of 54x which is higher when compared to the industry median of 31x. The 10-year median PE for the company is 38x while the industry median for the same period is 25x.

The EV Threat and Balance Sheet Resilience

Underneath the shrinking engine business sits a very solid balance sheet. Borrowings are down to Rs 54 cr, and the filings describe the company as almost debt free. Investments stand at Rs 357 cr, about a quarter of the entire Rs 1,393 cr market value. Operating cash flow was Rs 120 cr in FY26, well above the Rs 68 cr of operating profit. The company paid a Rs 1 dividend and commissioned a 29 MW solar plant during the year, per its FY26 sustainability filing.

The uncomfortable question sits in plain sight. Electric vehicles do not have camshafts. The core product is tied to the combustion engine, and management’s stated push into electric mobility and new components is still a promise, not a profit line. The market is charging a growth-stock price for that promise.

Price Discounts vs. Business Reality

Take away the shared peak timing and these are two very different discounts. Siyaram Silk Mills is a de-rating story. Record sales, record profit, and a market that has decided textile earnings deserve less respect than it gave them in December 2024. The homework there is about durability. Can profit keep growing off a base that has barely moved since FY22, and can margins climb back towards FY22 levels?

Precision Camshafts is a valuation puzzle wrapped around a technology question. A cash-rich, nearly debt-free company at 31 times earnings, where the earnings themselves lean on treasury income and the flagship product faces a slow-motion threat from electric vehicles. The homework there is about survival of the franchise, not the balance sheet.

The June 2026 filings show Kedia is still present in both, though the visible amounts differ. A discount from the all-time high is where the work begins, not where it ends. These two charts fell together. The businesses behind them did not. Adding these stocks to a watchlist seems like a smart choice for now.

Disclaimer:

Note: We have relied on data from http://www.Screener.in and http://www.trendlyne.com throughout this article. Only in cases where the data was not available, have we used an alternate, but widely used and accepted source of information.

The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor. This article is strictly for educative purposes only.

Suhel Khan has been a passionate follower of the markets for over a decade. During this period, he was an integral part of a leading Equity Research organisation based in Mumbai as the Head of Sales & Marketing. Presently, he is spending most of his time dissecting the investments and strategies of the Super Investors of India.

Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed in this article. The website managers, its employee(s), and contributors/writers/authors of articles have or may have an outstanding buy or sell position or holding in the securities, options on securities or other related investments of issuers and/or companies discussed therein.