Highlights: Hormuz crisis triggers Monday mayhem – Nifty settles below 22,550, Sensex sinks over 1,800 points

Geopolitical tension has pushed Brent crude oil prices sharply higher, with prices currently hovering around $112 per barrel, raising concerns for oil-importing economies like India. Adding to the negative sentiment, the Indian rupee slipped to a fresh low against the US dollar, further weighing on investor confidence due to fears of higher import costs and rising inflationary pressures. "Elevated crude oil prices pose a major macroeconomic challenge for India due to its strong reliance on energy imports. A prolonged rise in oil prices can increase inflationary pressures, expand the current account deficit, and put further pressure on the domestic currency," said Bajaj Broking in a note.

The data shared by Porinju Veliyath, in a tweet, revealed that markets are likely to stabilise and recover once the initial shock is over. On average, the Sensex has delivered gains of over 10% within three months of such events. The recovery strengthens over time, with average returns rising to nearly 17% in six months and almost 26% over nine months.

https://twitter.com/porinju/status/2035921251647340674?s=20

In the afternoon trade, the market remained under sharp pressure, with the Sensex falling 1,949.70 points or 2.62% to 72,583.26, while the Nifty slipped 628 points or 2.72% to trade at 22,486.50.

In intraday trading session today, the Nifty Auto index is under the pressure, slipping 3% to trade lower. The weakness was broad-based across auto stocks, with Mahindra & Mahindra down 3%, Ashok Leyland falling 3.6%, Motherson declining 3.6%, and Eicher Motors losing 3%. Maruti Suzuki also edged lower by 3%, while Tata Motors dropped 2%.

Selling was visible across other key names as well. Bharat Forge fell 4%, Bajaj Auto declined 2.6%, TVS Motor slipped 2%, and Hero MotoCorp was down 3%. Among others, Sona BLW Precision dropped 3.6%, Bosch declined 3%, Exide Industries fell 2.84%, Tube Investments slipped 3%, and Uno Minda was down 4% during the session.

In a tweet, Porinju Veliyath said that a sharp initial decline in the Sensex can be seen in the near-term after a major geopolitical turmoil, for example

Gulf War → -2.9%

9/11 attacks → -17%

Lehman collapse → -29%

COVID crash → -37%

This reflects fear, uncertainty, and liquidity shocks. However, the same index shows signs of recovery soon and delivers positive returns.

Average returns across all events:

3 months: 10.3%

6 months: 17.3%

9 months: 25.9%

https://twitter.com/porinju/status/2035921251647340674?s=20

At this hour, key laggards include Bajaj Finance down 4.44%, Trent slipping 4.55%, Titan falling 4.58%, Adani Ports declining 5.02%, and IndiGo dropping 5.49%.

In the Sensex 30 pack, at this hour, a few IT stocks managed to stay in the green despite broader market weakness. HCLTech was up 1.11% at Rs 1,348.80, while Tech Mahindra gained 0.56% to trade at Rs 1,392.70. TCS also edged higher by 0.45% at Rs 2,401.45.

Shares of Vedanta were under pressure in early trade today, slipping around 5% as investors reacted ahead of a key board meeting. The focus remains on a possible third interim dividend, with the record date already announced.

Also read: Vedanta Dividend Alert: 5 things to know as board meets today; record date fixed, stock sinks 5%

No respite for the market. The Nifty has fallen to an intra-day low of 22,630. This is the lowest levels since April 11, 2025.

Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, State Bank of India, and Jio Financial Services were the major five losers in the Nifty 50. On the other hand, ONGC and HCL Technologies were the only stocks trading in the green.

Indian equity indices opened Monday's trade on a lower note as tensions in West Asia escalated. The Nifty 50 dropped 330 points or 1.43% to open at 22,784. The BSE Sensex opened 1,025 points or 1.38% lower at 73,507. The US has given a deadline to Iran of 48 hours to open Hormuz Strait. In retaliation, Iran has said that it will strike energy sources of Gulf States if US attacked it.

According to market veteran Ajay Bagga, "Tough day ahead as geopolitics takes a dangerous escalatory turn. Markets are selling off, as it's tough to decide if rhetoric will get translated into actual action that could make the region uninhabitable. Iran said it would hit “vital” infrastructure in the Middle East including energy, IT and water desalination facilities, should the US attack its power plants as threatened by President Donald Trump. It also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic indefinitely. Trump had said late on Saturday the US would strike Iran’s power plants if the country did not open the strait within 48 hours. Iran’s senior military commander said the country’s military strategy had shifted from defensive to offensive."

https://twitter.com/Ajay_Bagga/status/2035901327721869367?s=20

The International Energy Agency is assessing the need for additional oil stock releases in coordination with governments across Asia and Europe amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Earlier, member nations agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilise global prices. The agency clarified that no specific price trigger is set for further action, with decisions based on evolving market conditions.

"Gift Nifty is indicating another round of gap-down opening for the domestic markets. The technical chart structure is weak; immediate support is placed around 22,800. A sustained trading below 22,800 could drag it towards 22,000-21,800 levels in the immediate near term. On the flip side, the 23,400-23,600 zone will act as an immediate resistance on the higher side," said Vipin Kumar, Assistant Vice President of Technical Research at Globe Capital.

Early signs of global markets and GIFT Nifty indicate that the domestic equity markets will open on a negative note. The US President Donald Trump has given a deadline of 48 hours to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation Iran said that it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours, if Trump follows through with a threat delivered a day earlier.

The Indian equity market may open sharply negative as global sentiment continues to deteriorate amid escalating geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. With no signs of de-escalation overnight and the critical 48-hour deadline approaching, markets are clearly shifting into a risk-off environment.

Speaking on the outlook for the markets, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, pointed out that "the situation is no longer seen as a short-term conflict; instead, it is evolving into a prolonged and complex global standoff, where uncertainty remains extremely high." 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six foreign currencies, was down 0.01% at 99.64. The index evaluates the strength or weakness of the US dollar in comparison to major currencies. The basket contains currencies such as the British Pound, Euro, Swedish Krona, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, etc. The rupee depreciated 1.16% to close at 93.71 to the dollar on March 23.