Highlights: US-Iran ceasefire triggers massive rally – Nifty closes near 24,000, Sensex jumps 2,900 points; VIX sinks 20%

Markets ended on a strong note, with bulls firmly in control as the Sensex surged 2,946 points or 3.95% to close at 77,562.90. The Nifty also posted sharp gains, rising 873.70 points or 3.78% to settle at 23,997.35, just shy of the 24,000 mark.

In late trade, markets remained sharply higher, with the Sensex surging 2,856 points or 3.83% to 77,473.32, while the Nifty gained 851.90 points or 3.68% to trade at 23,975.55.

Also read: Why are these 9 stocks falling even as Sensex, Nifty surge over 3% each

The long green Doji candlestick has been formed in Wednesday's trade after the US and Iran agreeed to ceasefire for the next two weeks. The Nifty 50 was up 858 points or 3.67% to trade at 23,972, while the BSE Sensex surged 2,826 points or 3.79% to trade at 77,443.

"The RBI’s decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% while retaining a neutral stance reflects a calibrated approach amid rising global uncertainties. While domestic growth remains resilient—with FY27 GDP projected at 6.9%—heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile crude prices warrant caution. By staying on pause, the central bank aims to keep inflation aligned within its comfort band, even as it preserves flexibility to respond to external shocks and currency pressures, ensuring the Indian economy remains on a steady expansion path," said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking.

Despite the broader market rally, a few stocks were trading in the red, with Power Grid slipping around 0.1%, Sun Pharma declining nearly 0.8%, and Tech Mahindra falling about 1.3% during intraday trade.

"While upside risks to inflation have inched up, it is reassuring to note the RBI’s measured view of India’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The stance balances growth considerations while retaining the flexibility to respond to changing situations. The RBI’s parallel focus on regulatory simplification and ease of doing business, especially for MSMEs, is a positive structural move. Overall, the policy continuity will have a compounding effect while reinforcing stability, sustaining credit flow, and supporting investment momentum amid global headwinds," said Rajiv Sabharwal, MD & CEO of Tata Capital.

"Acknowledging the risks to growth and inflation owing to disruption in energy and other supply chains, the MPC decided to hold policy rates while awaiting further clarity on the impact of the West Asian crisis. We do not see MPC hiking policy rates until CPI inflation durably surpasses 6% and inflation expectations get unhinged. We believe the 6.9% growth estimate put out by RBI for FY27 may need a reassessment as full pre-war energy export volumes might take 3–6 months due to backlog, diverted tankers, and partial infrastructure damage," said Garima Kapoor, Deputy Head of Research and Economist at Elara Capital.

Shriram Finance, IndiGo, Adani Enterprises, Tata Motors PV, and Larsen & Toubro were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. Coal India, ONGC, Tech Mahindra, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Wipro were the major losers in the Nifty 50.

In intraday trading, top gainers include IndiGo surging 10%, followed by L&T up 7.44%, Bajaj Finance gaining 7.32%, UltraTech Cement rising 7.15%, Maruti advancing 7.10%, and M&M climbing 6.93%.

"RBI’s words will resonate more than their actions. Amid a rapid shift in financial market narratives following the Middle East crisis and related vulnerabilities, investors are likely to focus on the central bank’s guidance. We expect policymakers to emphasise their capacity to contain domestic risks while refraining from signalling a clearly hawkish policy trajectory. The RBI is likely to prioritise financial stability and liquidity conditions, particularly in an environment of global monetary uncertainty, where premature moves could trigger volatility in capital flows and exchange rates," said Radhika Rao, Senior Economist & Executive Director at DBS Bank.

Nilesh Shah, MD Kotak Mahindra AMC, "The ceasefire announcement is a welcome move. From India point of view safety of 9 million Indians working in Middle East, Availability of energy with opening of Hormuz strait like pre war, Price of energy nearer to pre war prices and remittance flows from Middle East at the run rate of pre war is critical."

"Markets will see a relief rally with short covering but will continue to react to events. There could be many slips between cup and the lip. Investors should follow their dharma of asset allocation. Don’t chase momentum swinging by events. Be a disciplined investor catching a falling knife," he added.

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, marking a continued pause to manage inflationary pressures amid global uncertainties. The decision, announced by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, maintains a "neutral" stance to balance stable economic growth with inflation control. The central bank retained the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate at 5% and the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate at 5.5%.

"The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has dramatically altered the near-term market scenario. The crash in Brent crude to $ 95 following the ceasefire will again turn the market bullish. This ceasefire, particularly the agreed re-opening of the Hormuz Strait, will embolden the bulls to charge again, aided by the fair market valuations," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

Indian equity indices opened Wednesday's trade on a gap-up note. The NIfty 50 shot up 763 points or 3.30% to open at 23,886, while the BSE Sensex skyrocketed 2,627 points or 3.52% to open at 77,244. The sharp surge in markets came after US and Iran agreed to ceasefire for the next two weeks.

Today’s pre-trade trend points to a strong rally, with the Sensex soaring 2,593 points or 3.48% to 77,210 and the Nifty jumping 829 points or 3.59% to around 23,953, indicating a sharp gap-up start to the session.

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as it announces its latest monetary policy decision today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged.

Apart from the rate decision, markets will closely track the RBI’s commentary on inflation, growth outlook, and liquidity conditions.

Also read: RBI MPC Meet LIVE: Will Governor Sanjay Malhotra keep rates on hold amid high crude prices?

A sharp drop in global crude oil prices is likely to shift market focus towards sectors that are directly linked to fuel costs. Early on Wednesday, oil slipped below the $95 per barrel mark, bringing relief to industries that depend heavily on crude as a raw material.

Companies such as oil marketing firms, paint makers, tyre manufacturers, upstream players, and aviation companies are expected to be in action. Lower crude prices usually reduce input costs for many of these businesses, which can improve margins and boost investor sentiment in the near term.

The fall in oil prices comes after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week “double-sided ceasefire” with Iran. The development, arriving in the sixth week of the ongoing tensions, has eased supply concerns globally, leading to a sharp correction in crude rates.

Also read: 3 reasons why crude oil slides 13%: Prices slip below $100

The Information Technology sector's stocks rose the most in Tuesday’s trade, rising 2.3% in market capitalisation. Further, Artificial Intelligence stocks were followed by the Metals sector stocks, which were further followed by the Fertilisers stocks. However, the Restaurant and QSR sector stocks fell the most, declining 5.5%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six foreign currencies, was down 0.68% at 99. The index evaluates the strength or weakness of the US dollar in comparison to major currencies. The basket contains currencies such as the British Pound, Euro, Swedish Krona, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, etc. The rupee appreciated 0.10% to close at 92.98 to the dollar on April 07.

In India, the silver rate dropped 1.1% at Rs 2.31 lakh per kilogram. On COMEX, Silver prices rise 6.22% on Wednesday to trade at $76.46 per troy ounce. Silver had surged to record highs in January as well amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, with heavy speculative buying pushing prices higher.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) were the net sellers of shares worth Rs 8,336.30 crore. On the other hand, the Domestic institutional investors (DII) were the net buyers of shares worth Rs 7,448.94 crore on April 07, 2025, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

The rate for 24-carat gold today is Rs 1,50,330 per 10 grams. The price of gold has risen by 0.24% from yesterday. The 24 kt gold rate today in Delhi is Rs 1,50,070 per 10 grams. The 18-carat gold price today in India is Rs 1,12,747.5. The 24-carat gold rate in Dubai today is Rs 1,49,590. On COMEX, the precious metal was trading at a price of Rs 4,849.10 an ounce, rising 3.51%.