Even as the domestic stock market barometer soared to a fresh record on Thursday, top market voices point out that it’s important to not carried away by the euphoria, and it’s just another number. “Nifty reclaiming 11,000 or stock market at all-time high is just a number. If you look at the smallcap and midcap stocks, the indices are down by more than 18-19% in year-to date terms,” Jinesh Gopani Head Equities, Axis Mutual Fund told in an interview to ET Now.
Notably, the 30-share Sensex touched an all-time high of 36,533.63 on Thursday while the NSE benchmark Nifty regained the 11,000 level for the first time after January 29th. Indian shares rallied on the back of a recovery in Asian shares and an overnight fall in crude oil prices. The Nifty is now just 2% away from all-time high of 11,171.55. Oil and gas shares led by Reliance Industries, which surged on Thursday led the rally in market today.
Decoding the stock market rally, Gopani noted that the only reason why Nifty is holding up is due to a rally in 5-6 quality names. “There has been a significant divergence in the last 6 months, with the more fundamental story has taken a lead, while the momentum stocks have taken a beating. I think worries of oil prices, global trade war is weighing on the markets, as we have seen in last 3-4 months. If the concerns around these oil and trade war subside, we can see a midcap and smallcap rally,” Jinesh Gopani explained.
According to Vinay Paharia of Union AMC, while upcoming elections, rising crude oil prices, interest rates will impact the stock market going forward, investors must keep their focus on the long-term drivers. “Increased crude oil prices can stoke inflation, which in turn can increase the cost of capital. Hence, these are real risks which we should be aware of. However, according to us these are also transient factors which keep changing with regular frequency and hence should not be used as primary tools to make investment decisions. As investors, we should focus on longer term structural value drivers which determine a company’s earnings multiple and hence are more important,” Vinay Paharia, CIO, Union AMC told FE Online.
“If you across the board, the stocks may fallen, but good quality names are still not valued at comfortable valuations. When that opportunity arises, we will be ready to deploy the cash immediately. There’s a need to study long-term trend of individual businesses,” Raunak Onkar of PPFAS told in an interview to ET Now.