By Raj Deepak Singh
Rupee appreciated last week amid rise in risk appetite in the markets and stronger than expected Indian GDP data. Meanwhile, rise in crude oil prices prevented further gains. Dollar index moved marginally higher amid surge in US 10-year treasury yields and improved economic data from US. Manufacturing PMI for the US unexpectedly rose to 56.1 in May from 55.4 in April exceeding market forecasts of 54.5. Also, Dollar found some strength after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller, who said that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at every meeting from now on until inflation is decisively curbed.
We expect rupee to depreciate further this week towards 78.00 amid strong dollar and rise in crude oil prices. Further, traders speculate that US Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at next monetary policy meeting on June 15. Additionally, investors will remain vigilant ahead of major economic data from US like consumer price index data. At the same time, expectations of RBI interest rate hike by 40-50 basis points should keep the downside limited. USDINR (June) as long as it sustains above 77.60 it may reach till 78.20 in the week.
For Monday, Rupee is likely to depreciate amid strong dollar and rise in crude oil prices. Further, rupee may be pressurized by persistent foreign funds outflows. As long as USDINR (June) sustains above 77.60 it may rise further till 77.90 levels.
(Raj Deepak Singh is an Analyst – F&O, Currency, and Commodities at ICICIdirect. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing)