The Indian rupee opened 10 paise higher at 81.49 per dollar on Friday against the previous close of 81.59 per dollar. “As per the daily technical chart, we observed that the USDINR pair is trading above its trend-line support level of 81.40 and MACD is showing a positive divergence. Looking at the technical set-up, RSI is fetching below 50 levels and the pair is facing steep resistance at higher levels. The pair is finding support around 81.35-81.10 levels while resistance is placed around 81.85-82.05 levels. We suggest closely watching the levels of 81.35-81.85, either side breakout of the range could give further direction,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities.
Rupee may hit 80 mark in near-term, RBI likely to curb sudden appreciation
The rupee has been on a Zig-Zag move over the past many days as importers are rushing to cover dollars ahead of a slew of economic data & events along with RBI’s intervention near 81-81.20; whereas exporters & inflows are hitting critical resistance levels of 81.70-81.90 zone. Broadly, the rupee is expected to trade further into a consolidation range of 81.20 to 81.90 over the next 2-3 sessions before any big trigger helps it to break the same. Chances are high for the downside break with the potential to move towards 80.50 to 80 over the medium term. However, RBI might intervene regularly to curb sudden appreciation,” said Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex advisors.
Upside in Rupee to be capped by external risk factors
“We expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on weak tone in the US Dollar and crude oil prices. However, risk aversion in global markets and reports of COVID-19 lockdown in Pyongyang (capital of North Korea) may prevent sharp upside in Rupee. We may also see month-end Dollar demand from importers. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 80.50 to Rs 82.20,” sad Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
ISDINR: Target 81.80 for short-covering bounce
“Indian rupee strengthens, bucking the previous two days’ underperformance, on inflows from green bond issuance and the anchor book of Adani’s FPO oversubscribed. However, the risk-averse sentiments and stronger dollar have put a limit on the rupee’s gain. In the near-term, spot USDINR is expected to hover around 81.50 as most of the month-end dollar demands are met. The short-term traders should eye 81.80 for further short-covering bounce while breaking 81.20 push the pair towards 80.90,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
Budget 2023, central banks’ meetings eyed for cues
“Rupee traded in a narrow range and volatility was low as market participants remained cautious of important events that are scheduled next week. On the domestic front, we have the Union Budget, and also major central banks will release their policy statement. Yesterday, dollar fell despite advance GDP from the US coming in marginally above estimates. Today, the focus will be on the core PCE index number and better-than-expected data could support the dollar at lower levels. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 81.10 and 81.60,” said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.