The Indian rupee opened 11 paise higher at 81.82 per dollar on Thursday against the previous close of 81.93 per dollar. The local unit is likely to appreciate further amid weakness in the dollar and a rise in risk appetite in global markets. Further, the rupee may be supported as the Government of India in the Budget said it will target a fiscal deficit of 5.9% of GDP for 2023/24 compared to 6.4% for the current fiscal year. “US$INR is likely to trade towards the level of 81.69,” said ICICI direct.
Rupee to remain range-bound amid volatility
Rupee traded in a narrow range even after the announcement of the Union budget, and weakness in domestic equities. Reaction post Budget was quite muted for the rupee. On the other hand, dollar fell against its major crosses after the Fed, in line with expectations, raised by 25 bps. Today, focus will be on the BoE and the ECB policy statement to gauge a view for the major crosses. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 81.40 and 82.10,” said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
FII outflows, weakness in markets to cap Rupee gains
“We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on FII outflows and weakness in the domestic markets. Disappointing macroeconomic data may also put downside pressure on Rupee. However, soft dollar and a fiscally prudent budget may prevent sharp fall in the Rupee. Market participants may remain cautious ahead of ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings and FOMC meeting outcome. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 81.20 to Rs 82.80,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
Sharp upside in Rupee unlikely
Despite a clean break of recent trading range, there has been a clear disinclination to make large strides on the upside, according to Anand James – Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “This points to potential distribution again, but we will look to follow downsides only if below 81.59, with expectations of 81.75 continuing to act as a pivot today,” he said.
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