Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, risk aversion in markets; USDINR pair to trade in this range | The Financial Express

Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, risk aversion in markets; USDINR pair to trade in this range

The Indian rupee is expected to open weak amid strong US dollar, elevated oil prices, and volatility in equity markets. USDINR(Spot) is expected to trade with a positive bias.

Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, risk aversion in markets; USDINR pair to trade in this range
If USDINR Spot breaks the next key level of 83.40 levels and closes above it, there is a high possibility for the pair to breach 83.80 -84.00 levels

The Indian rupee is expected to open weak amid strong US dollar, elevated oil prices, and volatility in equity markets. USDINR(Spot) is expected to trade with a positive bias and quote in 82.50-83.20 range. In the previous session, rupee rebounded from its lifetime lows to close 25 paise higher at 82.75 against the US dollar amid weakness in the greenback overseas. Fag-end buying in domestic equities also bolstered investor sentiment. However, rising crude oil prices in the international market capped the rupee’s gain, according to analysts and traders. The local currency recovered on suspected RBI intervention after hitting a record low of 83.29 earlier during the session.

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Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee continued to remain under pressure and fell to another fresh all-time low in the first hour of the session. But later in the day losses were restricted following suspected RBI intervention. The dollar also rose against its major crosses on expectation that the Fed could continue to raise rates in the forthcoming meetings. Pound rose against the US dollar after Liz Truss resigned as the UK’s prime minister following weeks of turmoil in the financial markets in reaction to her government’s mini-budget. Today focus will be on retail sales number from the UK. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 82.50 and 83.20.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives, Kotak Securities

“USDINR spot made an all-time high of 83.29, but closed lower at 82.75, down 26 paise, on the back of suspected heavy intervention from the RBI. However, higher US bond yields and weaker Asian currencies against US Dollar should keep the pair well supported. We expect a range of 82.40 and 83.40 on spot.”

Heena Naik, Research Analyst – Currency, Angel One

“The current move in Rupee is an artificial one which means it won’t last for long. But there are other fundamentals too which may damage the currency in the long run and that is the geo-political tensions between US-China-Ukraine-Russia. This week is slightly crucial, and it is best that any huge bets are avoided considering RBI’s unpredictable mood swings. However, the overall trend of USDINR Spot is bullish (long run). If USDINR Spot breaks the next key level of 83.40 levels and closes above it, there is a high possibility for the pair to breach 83.80 -84.00 levels. However, on the downside, the key support lies at 82. 30 levels break which could push the currency towards 81.50 levels.”

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Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors

“The dollar index was flat at 113 while oil was also flat at $92.30 per barrel. The US 10-year yield rose to 4.25%. Asian currencies were generally weaker against the dollar. The rupee which closed at 82.76 against the dollar was set to open slightly weaker at 82.85. Yesterday, the RBI intervened by selling more than a billion dollars and rupee gained from a low of 83.2325 to 82.70. In NDF, rupee was at 82.66 before moving upto 82.85 this morning. The range for the day is expected to be 82.50 to 83.20 with a close watch on RBI. Exporters to keep a hold on their receivables with a stop at 82.50 while importers to continue buying dips to hedge their import payables before a truncated holiday next week due to Diwali festival.”

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First published on: 21-10-2022 at 08:21 IST