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Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, elevated crude prices; USDINR pair to trade in this range

Rupee is expected to depreciate today amid strong dollar, rise in crude oil prices and weak global market sentiments. Additionally, investors are concerned over global economic growth outlook as Europe is struggling with fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s extended lockdown

rupee vs dollar, dollar to rupee, USDINR
In the upcoming session, we may see Rupee testing 77 levels once after which we could see some opportunistic selling happening to bring it once again to the positive territory

The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate on Thursday amid strong dollar, elevated crude oil prices and weak global market sentiments. In the previous session rupee pared its early losses to settle almost flat against the US dollar on expectations of higher dollar inflows. However, a weak trend in domestic equities and the strength of the greenback in the overseas market weighed on the local unit. At the interbank forex market, the domestic unit opened at 76.69 against the greenback and touched an intra-day high of 76.50 before finally settling at 76.57, down by just 1 paisa over its previous close of 76.56.

Heena Naik- Research Analyst – Currency, Angel One

On 27 April 2022, USDINR made a gap up opening at 76.67 levels and surged towards 76.75 levels tracking bearish Asian equities. However, soon the trend of the currency changed, pulling it towards 76.51 levels on the back of huge dollar selling by exporter companies. In the upcoming session, we may see Rupee testing 77 levels once after which we could see some opportunistic selling happening to bring it once again to the positive territory. Not forgetting, the upcoming IPO-related inflows that could give a further boost to the currency.

ICICI Direct

“Rupee is expected to depreciate today amid strong dollar, rise in crude oil prices and weak global market sentiments. Additionally, investors are concerned over global economic growth outlook as Europe is struggling with fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s extended lockdown in a bid to curb the spread of Covid-19. Further, market will remain vigilant ahead of GDP data from US. US$INR (May) as long as it sustains above 76.55 it can slip back till 77.00/77.10

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“USDINR spot closed 5 paise lower at 76.52, on the back of exporter selling. Pullback in US bond yields also helped. Indian Rupee has emerged as one of the strongest currencies this year. We expect the outperformance to continue as RBI turns hawkish. Against the US Dollar, we expect a broad range of 76.20 and 76.80 on spot.”

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee traded in a narrow range but fell marginally following broad strength in the dollar against its major crosses. The dollar has risen in the last few sessions on expectation that the Fed could raise rates aggressively in the near future on fear of elevated inflation. On the other hand, the pound continues to be under pressure as economic numbers released from the UK in the recent past have been disappointing. Today, focus will be on the advance GDP number that will be released from the US; expectation is that the number could come in below estimates and could dent the recent rally of the dollar. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 76.20 and 76.80.”

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