Rupee likely to depreciate on elevated crude prices, FII outflows; USDINR pair to trade in this range

The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate on Wednesday amid weak global market sentiments, consistent FII outflows and elevated crude oil prices. Market sentiments were hurt on concerns over slowing economic growth and surging inflation across globe.

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USDINR pair is likely to be strongly resisted near 77.75-80 levels and expected to be dragged down towards 77.10 to 76.80 over the short term

The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate on Wednesday amid weak global market sentiments, consistent FII outflows and elevated crude oil prices. Market sentiments were hurt on concerns over slowing economic growth and surging inflation across globe. Additionally, traders will remain vigilant ahead of FOMC meeting minutes and major central banks policymakers statements, according to ICICI Direct. “US$INR (May) is expected to trade in a range of 77.45-77.7,” it said in a note. In the previous session, the rupee slipped against the US dollar, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit traded between 77.67-77.51 intraday before it finally settled at 77.59, down 4 paise over its previous close.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee fell marginally against the US dollar but consolidated in the range of 77.20 and 77.80 and momentum was lacking despite volatility seen in domestic and global equities. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the Fed Chairman’s and ECB President’s comments to gauge a view for the major currencies. On the domestic front, no major cues were lined and it has been more for the global cues that is triggering volatility. Today, focus will be on the FOMC meeting minutes data; expectation is that Fed officials could continue to maintain a hawkish stance thereby extending gains for the greenback. We expect USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 77.05 and 77.80.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“The USDINR spot closed 6 paise higher at 77.58 as equity markets came under selling pressure and some corporate outflows were noted. We suspect RBI intervention may have kept losses in check for the Rupee. Over the near term, USDINR can trade within a range of 77.30 and 77.80 levels on spot.”

Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors

“Today, the USDINR pair is expected to open around the 77.50 mark and is likely to trade in a range of 77.30 to 77.75 zone. Over the last 7 to 8 trading sessions, the pair was seen trading into a very tight range of 40 paise as there was a tough fight between bulls (importers and FII’s withdrawal) and bears (Exporters, RBI, and FDI). Despite a fall in US DXY in recent days, the traders are not betting on a long carry in Rupee. The reason could be the risk of faster RBI rate hike bets impacting the economy and elevated inflation pointing to negative real yields. Overall, the pair is likely to be strongly resisted near 77.75-80 levels and expected to be dragged down towards 77.10 to 76.80 over the short term.”

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