The Indian Rupee fell to a fresh lifetime low of 81.90 in opening trade on Wednesday amid strong dollar, FII outflows, and risk-off sentiments in equity markets. The delay in Indian bond inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index also likely weighed on the local unit. In the previous session, rupee weakened past the 81.60 mark. On the flow side, there has been notable outflow since Fed’s hike day. “Surely, RBI will have to closely monitor the situation. If not today or tomorrow, then the expectation of direct or indirect intervention will rise on the Policy day- that is on 30th September,” said Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors.
“Moreover, falling premium to an 11-year low along with curve inversion could not attract exporters to sell, thus persistent demand from importers to cover at any cost with a blind eye also triggers bullish momentum in the pair. Overall, we expect the pair to head higher towards 82.50-83.00 over the near term. On the contrary side, 81 and 80.50 will act as a strong support level,” Pabari added.
Rupee may fall further to 82.20
“Stronger US consumer confidence and durable goods orders have pushed the American currency higher. US 10-year bond yield touched 4%, adding to the gains in the dollar. Hawkish statements from various Fed members too have supported the rally in the dollar. Amid RBI policy, we expect Rupee to decline further to 82.20 on spot. RBI is likely to increase rates higher by 50 bps,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Analyst – Currency & Commodity, Reliance Securities told FinancialExpress.com.
More weakness in Rupee ahead
“Weakness in the Chinese yuan and delay of India’s bond inclusion in the JP Morgan EM Bond Index weighed on the rupee in early trade today. The depreciation in the Chinese yuan, a stronger dollar index and foreign fund outflows could further weigh on the local unit in the near term. We believe the rupee could slip below 82 and may fall to 82.90 if the situation doesn’t improve while on the downside 81 will act as support,” Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities told FinancialExpress.com.
Importers can buy all dips as dollar remains King
“USDINR rises to 81.83 as US 10-year rises to nearly 4% on hawkish comments from US FED officials. The US dollar index also rose higher to 114.55 as Euro and GBP fell from their recent highs. The Asian currencies were all trading lower to the dollar as IDR fell to 15205, CNH to 7.22 and KRW to 1439. Equities over Asia were down after the Dow fell overnight on the hawkish comments. SGX nifty was trading down by 112 points. The range is expected to be between 81.50 to 82.00 for the day. Exporters are to continue to hold their export proceeds with a stop at 81.30 while importers will have to buy all dips as the dollar remains the King amongst all currencies,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors.
(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)