RIL shares trade higher ahead of Q3 results scheduled today; key things to watch out for

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Published: January 17, 2019 12:58:13 PM

Shares of billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries gained in trade on Thursday morning, ahead of Q3 results scheduled to be reported later today. We take a look at key expectations.

Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Jio disrupted the telecom market by offering dirt-cheap data and calling services and in less than two years got 20% of the total subscriber base.According to Nomura, retail revenue is slated to cross the Rs 37,000 crore mark in Q3.

Shares of billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries gained in trade on Thursday morning, ahead of Q3 results scheduled to be reported later today. Reliance Industries share price gained by more than 1.2% to Rs 1,147.80 in the morning trade. A CNBC TV18 poll expects revenue to drop to Rs 1.38 lakh crore as compared to Rs 1.43 lakh core in the comparable quarter previous fiscal. The channel’s poll estimates net profit to come in marginally higher at Rs 9,690 crore versus 9,516 crore in Oct-Dec 2018. According to Nomura, retail revenue is slated to cross the Rs 37,000 crore mark in Q3. The key things that investors will look at would be the growth in retail, telecom and petrochemical businesses. We take a closer look at what major brokerages are expecting.

Retail business

The growth in retail business will be a key data point to watch out for. Nomura expects revenue of Reliance Retail to double to 37,000 crore in the October-December period. Interestingly, global brokerage firm CLSA raised the share price target of Reliance Industries to Rs 1,500 and expects retail business revenue to rise over 12x to $137 billion by 2028 on the back of bundled product offerings with Reliance Jio connections and large physical store presence, which should give RIL a lead in electronics.

Telecom

Analysts expect Reliance Jio’s revenue and profits to increase sharply sequentially, given a substantial  increase in its subscriber base and steady tariffs. Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities estimate revenues and operating profit to increase 14% and 20%, respectively, on a sequential basis. The percentage of rural subscribers in the company’s overall base has jumped to over 32% in the September quarter of 2018 compared to just 4.25% two years ago when the company launched its commercial services.

Refining

Interestingly, the refining business may be subdued in the current quarter due to global headwinds. ICICI Securities Ltd estimates RIL’s GRM for the December quarter to be at a 16-quarter low of $8.7 a barrel, and down from $9.5 a barrel in the previous quarter.

Petchem

“Petrochemical segment is expected to do better due to healthy deltas and strong volume growth in the segment. Positive developments in the telecom and retail segments should drive growth further for the company,” Motilal Oswal said in a note.

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