We met with the senior management of RBL and came back confident on its outlook and execution capabilities. Growth rates to remain healthy with benefits flowing from multi-channel distribution network.
We met with the senior management of RBL and came back confident on its outlook and execution capabilities. Growth rates to remain healthy with benefits flowing from multi-channel distribution network. NIM to remain intact with granular retail franchise. Some near-term challenges persists like asset quality pain in farm loan book and credit costs linked to demon-impacted MFI loans, which will ease over the next few quarters. We expect RBL to scale up materially without any significant teething issues while achieving best in class performance across major parameters. RBL is transitioning from being a wholesale-focused regional player to an agile technology-leader with a diversified portfolio, focus on strategic niche customer segments, and pan-India aspirations. RBL will command a premium to peers given (1) loan growth 3-4x of industry for foreseeable future, (2) ample scope of improving its low cost deposits and fee income, (3) negligible legacy issues, and (4) value accretion from significant rise in retail assets (tie-up with Bajaj Finance/new gen/e-comm players). We value RBL at 3.4x FY20E P/ABV to arrive at TP of Rs 650. At CMP of Rs 477, RBL trades at 2.5x FY20E P/ABV. GNPA ratio in the financial inclusion business seemed to have peaked (5.2% in Q3FY18). RBL has already provided for 35% of the pain portfolio and the balance will be provided for in FY19. Post the accelerated provisioning and write-offs, GNPAs in this business is expected be brought down to 1% by FY19 end. Normalized credit cost in the microfinance business is 50-70 bps. FY20 onwards the management aims to strengthen this portfolio by creating additional buffers for any unexpected events in the future. RBL is not disbursing new microfinance loans in problematic areas but collection process is continuing with a recovery rate of 25%.