The RBI's interest rate decision, key macroeconomic data points and global trends would drive the market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, say analysts.
The RBI’s interest rate decision, key macroeconomic data points and global trends would drive the market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, say analysts. Markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Id-Ul-Fitr.
Meanwhile, official data released after market hours Friday showed that India’s economic growth rate slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in January-March 2018-19 due to poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
The eight core sector industries too witnessed a slowdown in April, with growth rate slipping to 2.6 per cent.
There was, however, some relief on the government finances front, as the fiscal deficit for 2018-19 remained within the revised Budget target of 3.4 per cent of the GDP.
Markets may react to these numbers Monday, but slowing GDP growth has increased the chances of a rate cut by the RBI on June 6, which will be welcomed by participants, analysts said.
“On global front, US-China trade wars along with rise in oil price will determine further trend. We continue to remain optimistic on equity markets,” said Hemang Jani, Head – Advisory, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
Post the announcement of key portfolios in the newly-elected government, focus will shift towards various economic reforms and policies, experts added.
“Finance Ministry is now lead by Nirmala Sitharaman and there are many hopes now. First is liquidity, followed by banks recapitalisation and improvement in demand in the economy,” said Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research.
According to Jimeet Modi, Founder and CEO, SAMCO Securities & StockNote, “This week is crucial for a mid-term direction of the market.”
PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors as well as auto sales numbers for the month of May are scheduled to be released this week.
“The ambiguity of portfolio allocation is now removed, so this is good for the market in a sense. Emergence of clarity is what was important, and now narrative in markets will be about the economic policies that will be adopted to revive and stimulate the slowing economy,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Sr VP and Head of Research (Wealth), Centrum Broking Limited.
In a highly volatile session on Friday, the benchmark BSE Sensex ended 118 points lower at 39,714.20. However, on a weekly basis, the 30-share index finished with a gain of 279.4 points.