Progress made by company is slow

By: | Published: July 2, 2018 4:29 AM

Even as patanjali is not gaining incremental market share anymore, CLGT is not wresting back any of the lost share either, unlike what a Dabur is reporting in Honey and Chyawanprash.

Patanjali is not gaining incremental market share anymore

Even as patanjali is not gaining incremental market share anymore, CLGT is not wresting back any of the lost share either, unlike what a Dabur is reporting in Honey and Chyawanprash. Underlying category volume growth is inching up but at a slow pace. CLGT, on its part, is stepping up A&P investments behind Swarna Vedshakti, the company’s flagship challenger brand in the naturals segment. We lower our volume growth assumptions a tad and increase A&P estimates, driving a 4.2-4.4% cut in FY2019-21e EPS forecasts. TP retained on DCF rollover to June 2019e. Add.

Underlying category growth — gradual improvement even as hopes of acceleration are intact: Our checks and discussions with CLGT suggest modest improvement in underlying category growth rates. The company remains hopeful of a rural-recovery-led acceleration driven by MSP increases, a third consecutive normal monsoon and pre-election spending surge. To be sure, this is not supported yet by any meaningful demand inflection signs. Premiumisation trends remain weak with the multi-benefit Total franchise, the sensitivity range and the whitening portfolio continuing to be drags. The core CDC franchise is stable while the freshness (Maxfresh) range remains one of the bright spots.

Stepping up A&P investments; confident of GM sustenance: Likely price increases should take care of input cost inflation trends, in our view. We do gather that CLGT has stepped up A&P investments behind Swarna Vedshakti and that A&P could remain elevated for the next few quarters.

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