NTPC: Why Nuvama projects 13% upside on RE ramps while Motilal Oswal flags connectivity risks

While some analysts remain positive on the company’s renewable energy pipeline and long-term capacity expansion plans, others continue to stay cautious over execution risks and moderation in thermal plant performance.

According to brokerage reports, the company’s transition towards renewable energy, battery storage systems, and nuclear power projects remains one of the key themes driving investor attention. 

However, near-term challenges linked to demand trends, thermal utilisation levels and project connectivity continue to remain important monitorables.

Let’s take a look at what major brokerages are saying about the stock and the factors shaping their outlook.

Nuvama remains positive on NTPC

The brokerage house Nuvama has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on NTPC and raised its target price to Rs 445 from Rs 409 earlier.

This implies a potential upside of around 13% from the current market price.

According to the brokerage report, despite some short-term growth challenges, NTPC remains one of its preferred picks in the power sector because of stable return ratios, renewable energy-led expansion and relatively inexpensive valuations.

Nuvama stated, “Despite near-term growth challenges, NTPC remains our top pick given steady-state 16–17% core Return on Equity and a 9.4% adjusted consolidated Earnings Per Share CAGR over FY26–28E.”

The brokerage highlighted that NTPC is currently trading at around 1.7 times the FY28 estimated Price-to-Book value, which it considers reasonable compared to the company’s long-term growth potential.

Q4 performance stays largely in line

Nuvama said that NTPC’s standalone adjusted profit after tax during the March quarter rose 5.8% year-on-year, though generation declined because of weaker electricity demand and lower plant load factor levels.

Nuvama said, “Standalone adjusted Profit After Tax rose 5.8% year-on-year despite favourable tax adjustments.”

The brokerage also noted that NTPC’s standalone power generation declined 4.4% year-on-year during Q4FY26 as Plant Load Factor slipped to 76% from 81% a year ago.

At the consolidated level, adjusted profit after tax for FY26 rose nearly 17% year-on-year to around Rs 22,900 crore.

The report noted that most of NTPC’s future growth is now expected to come from its subsidiaries and joint ventures, especially renewable energy-focused businesses.

Renewable energy pipeline remains key focus

One of the biggest reasons behind Nuvama’s positive stance is NTPC’s renewable energy and expansion pipeline.

As per the brokerage report, the company currently has 34.1 gigawatt of under-construction capacity, including 16.5 gigawatt thermal power projects, 15 gigawatt renewable energy projects and 2.6 gigawatt hydro projects.

Nuvama stated, “NTPC has 34.1GW of under-construction capacity, implying 10–12GW additions annually over the next three years.”

The brokerage also highlighted that NTPC Green Energy’s profit grew 10% year-on-year in FY26, though capital expenditure remained back-ended during the year.

According to the report, the company is also expanding into battery energy storage systems, coal gasification and nuclear power projects.

A 5 gigawatt-hour Battery Energy Storage System has been allocated to NTPC under the Viability Gap Funding scheme to improve efficiency at thermal stations and support supply during non-solar hours.

Nuclear and storage projects gain traction

Nuvama also highlighted progress in NTPC’s nuclear and pumped storage projects.

According to the report, the company is executing the 4×700 megawatt Mahi Banswara Atomic Nuclear project through a joint venture with Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited.

The brokerage said excavation consent for two units was received in March 2026, while site studies are being conducted across multiple states.

The company’s pumped storage portfolio currently stands at 18 gigawatt-hours.

Motilal Oswal stays cautious

The brokerage house Motilal Oswal has maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on NTPC with a target price of Rs 393, implying limited upside from current levels.

According to the brokerage report, the company continues to make progress in renewable energy and storage projects, but some operational risks remain.

Motilal Oswal stated, “A spike in power demand should support strong Plant Load Factors in Q1FY27.”

The brokerage also highlighted that NTPC Green Energy’s generation grew 114% year-on-year during FY26 and that renewable Power Purchase Agreement tie-ups remain healthy.

However, the report flagged concerns around lower coal-based Plant Load Factor levels, reduction in thermal capacity addition targets and connectivity-related risks in renewable projects.

Motilal Oswal added, “Execution-related risks remain, as only around 57% of projects have firm connectivity.”

What investors need to know

NTPC’s future growth story is now increasingly linked to renewable energy, storage systems and new-age power infrastructure projects rather than only traditional thermal power generation.

At the same time, investors may continue tracking execution timelines, renewable project commissioning, thermal demand trends and progress in nuclear and battery storage initiatives over the coming quarters.

Disclaimer: The analysis, data, and brokerage ratings presented regarding NTPC Limited are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Equity investments are subject to market risks, and the target prices or upside potential projected by brokerages are estimates that may change based on market dynamics, connectivity, and execution risks. Readers are strongly advised to consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor or qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.