Nifty looks set to hit 18,000 in medium-term, Bank Nifty may trade volatile on weekly F&O expiry day

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Updated: September 23, 2021 9:19:01 am

Nifty, Bank Nifty Outlook: Analysts expect Nifty to touch 18,000 in the medium-term and advise investors to use any meaningful correction to buy

Nifty, bank nifty liveOn the last weekly F&O expiry day, Nifty settled at 17,644; while Bank Nifty closed at 37,720 levels.

Nifty 50, Bank Nifty forecast: NSE’s Nifty 50 ended flat a day before weekly F&O expiry, at 17,546. Analysts expect Nifty to touch 18,000 in the medium-term and advise investors to use any meaningful correction to buy. “Support for the September series is seen at 17325 while resistance is expected at 17600-177700 levels. Breach of 17325 on the closing basis is expected to result in selling pressure to sub 17000 levels,” Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities, said. While analysts see a volatile session in Bank Nifty on Thursday. 37625 –37800 will be seen as immediate hurdles whereas, 36875–36500 should be treated as key supports for Nifty Bank, Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities, told Financial Express Online.

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Highlights

    09:18 (IST)23 Sep 2021
    Bank Nifty likely to trade volatile on F&O expiry day

    Volatile trading sessions are expected in Nifty Bank as we are approaching the expiry of the September series. As far as levels are concerned, 37625 –37800 are to be seen as immediate hurdles whereas, 36875–36500 should be treated as key supports for Nifty Bank. The first sign of real weakness in Nifty Bank would come only if Nifty Bank starts sliding below the lower range of 36450-36400. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities

    09:16 (IST)23 Sep 2021
    Nifty remains in a medium-term uptrend for targets of 18000

    Nifty remains in a medium-term uptrend for targets of 18000 and above; any meaningful correction is a good opportunity to buy. Support for the September series is seen at 17325 while resistance is expected at 17600-177700 levels. Breach of 17325 on the closing basis is expected to result in selling pressure to sub 17000 levels. Auto and Energy stocks trade with a positive bias while Metals are expected to consolidate before resuming uptrend. Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities

    12:33 (IST)22 Sep 2021
    Nifty needs to close above 17600 to resume rally

    The Nifty has taken support at the 17300 levels. The direction in the short term is still not clear; we need to keep above 17600 on a closing basis in order to resume the current uptrend. On the flip side, if we break 17300 on a closing basis, we will endeavor a further slip to 17100-17150. It is a wait and watches the situation. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments

    09:07 (IST)22 Sep 2021
    Charts show uptrend in Nifty 50 from current levels

    After two days of sharp correction, benchmark indices witnessed a sharp pull back rally while Nifty found support at 17326 to reverse the falling trend. Technically, the texture of the sharp reversal formation near the 10 day SMA suggests further uptrend from the current level. We are of the view that while the short-term trend still looks up, uncertain global market conditions could see the Nifty within the range of 17650-17450 levels. For day traders, as long as the index is trading above 17450, pullback rally is likely to continue up to 17600-17650 -17680 levels. On the flip side, index below 17430, the uptrend would be vulnerable. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd

    09:06 (IST)22 Sep 2021
    Nifty trading range would be 17300-17800

    According to Daily charts, the key support levels for the Nifty are placed at 17,370 followed by 17,320. .If the index moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out for are 17615 and 17,720. The index has violated the short-term support of its five-day exponential moving average (EMA) but is still maintaining its level above 15 and 21-day EMA supports. Strong supports are placed at 17320- 17275 zone. Any dip to these levels will be a buying opportunity. Overall trading range is between 17300-and 17800 zones. On the hourly chart, the Nifty index has given a breakout of falling channel formation and showing a positive crossover in stochastic and RSI, which supports the upward trend. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities

    10:42 (IST)21 Sep 2021
    37250 a crucial level in Bank Nifty

    The trend deciding level for Bank Nifty future is 37250. If it trades and sustains above 37250 bank nifty may test 37425-37610 but if it tradesbelow 37250, it may slide down to 36880-36645. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities

    10:42 (IST)21 Sep 2021
    Nifty may fall to 17200-17150 levels in the next few sessions

    The confirmation of short term top reversal pattern is likely to drag Nifty down to 17200-17150 levels in the next few sessions. "Any attempt of upside bounce from here could find strong resistance at 17625 levels. However, a move below 17150 is likely to open more broad based weakness in the near term," Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research  Analyst, HDFC Securities.

    09:43 (IST)20 Sep 2021
    Long-term bullish trend remains intact, Nifty Bank may hit 39500 in coming weeks

    The trend deciding level for Bank Nifty future is 37200 if it trades and sustains above 37200, Bank Nifty may test 38345-38550 but If trades below 37200, it may slide down to 37680-37370. On the technical front momentum indicator RSI when plotted on the daily timeframe can be seen sustaining consistently above the 65 mark which shows strong positive momentum in the short to medium term. If the long-term bullish trend remains intact Nifty bank can give a move towards 39000 and 39500 levels in the coming weeks. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities

    09:41 (IST)20 Sep 2021
    Nifty may move towards 18550 in coming weeks

    Nifty has maintained the trading range between 17,375. on the lower side and 17,880 on the higher side. NIFTY may consolidate in the range of 17,630 and 17,850 levels for next few trading sessions. The 17,480 and 17,355 may act as strong support. We may see Nifty giving a move towards 18,100 and 18550 levels in the coming weeks. One should focus on mid and small cap stocks for higher returns as both these sectors are showing strength. Aprajita Saxena, Research Analyst, Trustline Securities

    09:58 (IST)17 Sep 2021
    17500 to act as immediate support

    On Thursday, the Nifty opened higher and gained further strength as the day progressed closing with a gain of more than 0.43%. Looking at options data, aggressive OI addition was seen at 17500 Put option. Hence, we expect 17500 to act as immediate support. Nifty futures ended at a discount of 18 points while IV was up by 4.72%. The major Put base is at 17500 strike with 20 lakh shares while the major Call base is at the 17600 strike with 14 lakh shares.

    ~ ICICI Direct

    08:55 (IST)17 Sep 2021
    Trading spot band between 17480 and 17660 for current session

    The Nifty could immediately trade in a 1.30% range either side from 17600 with a bias on the upside, weekly options data show. The range for the market based on the combined value of the 17600 call and put expiring on September 23 is 17800-17400. The bias, going by the open interest put call ratio of 1, is on range bound,indicating traders have sold equal put and call options, expecting the market to move in between 17400-17800 and gobbling up the premiums received by selling puts and calls to the option buyers.

    In the coming session, the trading spot band is between 17480 and 17660, which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 17660 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 17480 are broken.

    ~ Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities

    16:34 (IST)15 Sep 2021
    Nifty inches close to hit 17550, buy on dips

    The Nifty successfully closed above the 17450 mark which was a resistance owing to the sideways patch. We should now be heading higher to 17550 and then 17750. These are the next two target points to look out for. Since the first target is very close, a "buy on dips" approach is suggested. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments

    16:32 (IST)15 Sep 2021
    Nifty eyes 18,000 target now

    Nifty continues to trade with a positive bias for the short as well and medium term. We expect the index to conquer 18000 and above in the medium term. Last matured support for the index is seen at 17080 above which we remain positive. Options concentration is seen at 17000 put and 17500 call – this is indicative of some resistance at 17500-17600 levels. Value is seen in Auto and Mid-cap Banking stocks; expect outperformance in the midcap space to continue. Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities

    14:24 (IST)15 Sep 2021
    Nifty to hit 17700 if it holds above 17300

    Our research suggests that If the market is able to sustain the level of 17300, we can witness higher levels of 17700 as the momentum indicators like RSI and MACD to stay positive and market breadth to improve, further strengthening a short-term bullish outlook. Gaurav Garg, Head of  Research  CapitalVia Global Research 

    12:05 (IST)14 Sep 2021
    Nifty Open Interest falls

    Minor unwinding was seen in Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest fell by 1.88% with Nifty falling by 0.08%.

    Short build up was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 2.73% with Bank Nifty falling by 0.58%

    ~ HDFC Securities

    08:46 (IST)14 Sep 2021
    Nifty immediate support at 17,200

    Nifty immediate support at 17,200 then 17,050 zones while resistance at 17,500 then 17,777 zones. Buy Nifty on decline with Stop loss of 17,200 for an up move towards 17,500 zones.

    ~ Motilal Oswal Financial Services

    08:39 (IST)14 Sep 2021
    Nifty to move between 17254-17437 range for the near term

    "Nifty continues to close in a narrow band of 17353-17378 over the past 5 sessions. This reflects lack of enthusiasm on the part of sellers to sell aggressively while buyers keep nibbling at individual stocks. Advanced decline ratio continues to be positive. 17254-17437 is the band for the near term for the Nifty," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

    14:04 (IST)13 Sep 2021
    Bank Nifty should hold 36000 levels for upsides to continue

    The Nifty traded in a tight range last week amid high volatility where stock specific action was seen. As broad based buying was absent, sectoral rotation was clearly visible where banking stocks witnessed marginal outperformance and the index managed to close above 36000 levels after sharp whipsaws.

    Among private banks, Kotak Mahindra Bank outperformed whereas midcap banks also did better. PSU banks saw closure in writing Call OI positions indicating some positive trend in PSU banks in coming days.

    ~ ICICI Direct

    11:46 (IST)13 Sep 2021
    Time to be cautious

    Marginal unwinding in the Nifty, marginal short built up in the Bank Nifty Futures, Call writing at 17400 - 17500 levels and long unwinding by FIIs in the Index futures segment Indicates that one should be cautious for the markets.

    ~ HDFC Securities

    09:17 (IST)13 Sep 2021
    Bears to swing by today

    "Despite couple of upside bursts on Thursday, Nifty failed to climb the wall of worry, stalling precisely at the 17374 mark which we had ear marked for the day. Meanwhile, standard deviation studies suggest that we are about to see a range expansion beyond the 17436-17254 band prevailing since the 6 th of Sep, hand having had flat close in the subsequent days. Favoured view expects a bear swing first today, but if 17145 can manages to attract buying interest, then a 1500 point leap higher could unfold," said analysts at Geojit Financial Services.

    09:16 (IST)13 Sep 2021
    Further upsides likely once immediate resistances of 17410 taken out

    The Nifty has already rallied almost 1100 points in 13 sessions , leading the FNO indicator to enter in the overbought territory . This may lead the index to enter a consolidation phase to cool off overbought conditions. But the index short-term outlook is still bullish as the open interest has risen further and current OI of almost 1.6 crore shares is highest seen since February 2020. At the same time, FIIs’ net longs have also increased near 60,000 contracts suggesting ongoing positive bias. Hence, till we do not see closure of positions, buy on declines strategy should continue.

    In the coming session, the trading spot band is between 17270 and 17410,which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 17410 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 17270 are broken.

    ~ Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities

    11:55 (IST)09 Sep 2021
    Time to remain cautious

    Unwinding in the Nifty Futures & Call writing at 17400-17500 levels Indicates that one should remain cautious for the markets.

    ~ HDFC Securities

    11:05 (IST)09 Sep 2021
    Buy Bank Nifty in the range of 36650-36750

    The Bank Nifty opened higher and gained strength as the day progressed as it closed with a gain of 0.81%. Looking at option data, 37000 Call option hold significant OI, which should act as immediate resistance while 36500 Put option holds meaningful OI, which should act as support in case of any fall. Buy Bank Nifty in the range of 36650-36750 Target: 36900- 37000 Stop loss: 36450

    ~ ICICI Direct

    10:12 (IST)09 Sep 2021
    Put-Call OI

    On the options front, maximum Put OI for 30th Sep series is at 17000 strike price with 41 lakh shares followed by 16700 & 16500 strike price. Meanwhile, maximum Call OI for 30th Sep series is at a 17500 strike price with 17 lakh shares followed by 17300 & 17200 strike price .

    10:11 (IST)09 Sep 2021
    Range-bound activity may continue

    The texture of the chart suggests range bound activity may continue in the near future. For the day traders, 17280 would be the key level to watch out for, and if the index rises above the same, the uptrend formation could continue up to 17400-17475 levels. On the flip side, dismissal of 17280 could trigger one more leg of correction up to 17250-17200 levels.

    ~ Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research, Kotak Securities Ltd

    15:19 (IST)07 Sep 2021
    Nifty may hit 17450, if it remains above 17250

    The market witnessed some volatile movements and an attempt to hold the level around the Nifty 50 Index level of 17300. If the market sustains above the level of 17200-17250, it is expected to gain momentum, leading to an upside projection till 17400-17450 level. The momentum indicators like RSI and MACD to stay positive and market breadth to improve, further strengthening a short-term bullish outlook. Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research

    15:15 (IST)07 Sep 2021
    Buy on declines strategy should continue in Nifty

    From the future's perspective, Nifty open interest has risen further and the current OI of almost 1.5 crore shares is the highest seen since February 2020. At the same time, FIIs’ net longs have also increased near 61000 contracts suggesting ongoing positive bias. Hence, till we do not see closure of positions, buy on declines strategy should continue. ICICI direct Research

    15:09 (IST)07 Sep 2021
    Maximum call OI at 17500

    On the options front, maximum Put OI for 30th Sep series is at 17000 strike price with 34 lakh shares followed by 16700 & 16500 strike price. Meanwhile, maximum Call OI for 30th Sep series is at a 17500 strike price with 17 lakh shares followed by 17300 & 18000 strike price. Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities

    15:08 (IST)07 Sep 2021
    Remain long until Bank Nifty holds 36400

    Our advise is to built up fresh long positions after minor correction with stop loss of 17200 level. In the Bank Nifty, our advice is to remain long until Bank Nifty holds 36400 level. HDFC Securities

    15:02 (IST)07 Sep 2021
    Nifty needs to hold above 17200 to hit 17500

    Our research suggests that if markets sustained above 17200, we could expect the market to gain momentum, leading to an upside projection till 17450-17500. Gaurav Garg, Head of  Research  CapitalVia Global Research 

    13:32 (IST)03 Sep 2021
    17,180 levels to watch out

    The trend deciding level for the day is 17180. If NIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 17300-17365-17485 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17180 levels then we may see some profit booking initiating in the market, which may correct up to 17115- 16995-16930 levels.

    ~ Axis Securities

    12:40 (IST)03 Sep 2021
    Support placed at 17,114

    Yesterday, NIFTY-50 oscillated upwards during the day and recorded new high of 17,246-level. The index invalidated prior near-term weakness and witnessed fresh up-move. Overall market breadth turned positive, while major sectors ended on a strong note. Its key moving averages are sloping upwards on the hourly timeframe chart. Though hourly RSI witnessed positive cross-over, poised below the extended trendline. Major parameters are in favour of the bulls, hence prevailing rising trend will continue. This could take the index towards 17,500-level. In case of decline, the index will find support at around 17,050-level initially and 16,900-level subsequently.

    As for the day, support is placed at around 17,114 and then at 16,994 levels, while resistance is observed at 17,300 and then at 17,366 levels.

    ~ Reliance Securities

    11:30 (IST)03 Sep 2021
    Long build up in Nifty Futures, Short covering in Bank Nifty Futures

    Long build up was seen in Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest rose by 4.01% with Nifty rising by 0.92%. Short covering was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest fell by 3.55% with Bank Nifty rising by 0.82%.

    ~ HDFC Securities

    10:23 (IST)03 Sep 2021
    Corrections limited for Nifty 50

    Nifty is in a sharp trended up-move over the last 5-6 sessions and the interim correction has been limited to one session so far-Wednesday (compared to 2-3 sessions of consolidation of past). This indicates the strength of upside momentum for the short term.

    ~ Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

    08:51 (IST)03 Sep 2021
    Nifty futures see fresh long build-up

    "Nifty futures witnessed fresh long build-up (+4%) while Bank Nifty saw short covering (-4.1%) led by leadership from Kotak Mahindra Bank. 37,000 Call writers, if challenged today, can lead to 38,000+. Options concentration is seen at 17,200 Puts and 17,500 Calls. Bullish action was seen in FMCG, IT, and Consumer durables," said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.

    13:18 (IST)02 Sep 2021
    Nifty resistance at 17,200

    Nifty view: Sideways with support at 17,000 and resistance at 17,200. Bank Nifty closed (yesterday) on a cautious note and needs to cross 37,000 for further short covering.

    ~ Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.

    11:13 (IST)02 Sep 2021
    Unwinding seen in Nifty Futures

    Unwinding was seen in Nifty Futures’ at higher levels, where Open Interest fell marginally by 0.34% with Nifty falling by 0.33%. Long build up was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 3.81% with Bank Nifty rising by 0.25%.

    ~ HDFC Securities

    09:22 (IST)02 Sep 2021
    Break above 17,220 could help Nifty surge another 100 pts higher

    While 17220, as well as 17045, performed on anticipated lines yesterday, both are likely to be in play again today. We had also suggested that the angle of rise from here on could be less obtuse, and yesterday’s decline from the top is in line with the same. This has left Nifty with more steam to rise again, which would be in play as long as 17045 is intact. However, we will go in today with limited expectations of a breach of 17220. There will be initial positivity nevertheless, but it could slow down once inside the 17145-17220 region. Break of 17220 could usher in a 100 point upmove at best, and a run a way rally is less expected.

    ~ Geojit

    09:20 (IST)02 Sep 2021
    Nifty expected to trade in 17200-17000 range

    On the options front, maximum Put OI for September 30 series is at 16500 strike price with 27 lakh shares followed by 16000 & 17000 strike price. Meanwhile, maximum Call OI for September 30 series is at a 17500 strike price with 16 lakh shares followed by 17000 & 18000 strike price.

    The Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 17200-17000. As in the Nifty weekly option chain, the highest Call base is still placed at 17200, which remains an immediate hurdle. The highest Put base is still placed at 17000, which remains positional support.

    ~ Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities

    13:07 (IST)01 Sep 2021
    Remain bullish with trailing stop loss of 17000 levels

    Our advise is to remain bullish with the trailing stop loss of 17000 levels. On the higher side 17200-17300 level will act as an immediate resistance where Calls have been written.

    ~ HDFC Securities

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