By V K Sharma
The Nifty on Thursday rallied 600 points intra-day from the day’s low of 22,182 to finally close at 22,713—a rise of 531 points from the low and just a 34-point net gain for the day. But this alone is not the reason why we expect the markets to find their moorings in the next few weeks.
In fact, when we step back and look at the broader picture, the scenario still appears quite scary. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be largely blocked, crude remains on the boil, and the war continues to be waged.
The Nifty closed the week with a loss of 106 points, or 0.47%. This was the sixth consecutive weekly loss—the longest streak of weekly declines since the Covid era.
Yet, there have been a few technical developments that warrant a closer look. Please refer to the adjoining chart.
Technical Resilience
During the holiday-shortened week, which had only three trading sessions, the Nifty pierced trendline number 88 but managed to close above it. This was no mean feat. The trendline was formed by joining the lows of 21,281 recorded on June 7, 2024, and 21,743 on April 11, 2025. Since this is an upward-sloping trendline, the support from it stood at 22,296. The trendline was breached in intraday terms on Thursday, April 2, 2026, when the index touched a low of 22,182, but it closed at 22,713, well above the trendline.
This development reiterates the importance of this trendline as a natural support going forward.
Beyond the Charts
Another development last week was the rupee logging its best rally since 2013, as the central bank came down heavily on authorised dealers by forbidding them from facilitating non-deliverable derivative contracts tied to the rupee for both domestic and offshore clients. Furthermore, banks were asked to cease foreign exchange derivative dealings with affiliated entities, closing a common loophole often used for capital flight.
Another aspect that needs to be kept in mind is that March typically sees tax-related selling, with investors booking losses to reduce their tax liabilities. That period is now over. In fact, if we look at the daily charts of the Nifty (not shown here), we see a positive divergence. Although the Nifty made a new low on April 2, the RSI did not. It made its low on March 13 at 24.1 and is now higher than that level. This bullish RSI divergence on the daily charts offers hope for a sustainable pullback.
Support for the Nifty comes in at 22,325 from the weekly trendline, while resistance is seen at 22,941 and 23,862. It is darkest before dawn — do not panic.
(The author is a technical analyst and former head of clients’ group, HDFC Securities)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s own and do not reflect the official policy or position of Financial Express.