NBFCs’ AUM growth may fall by half, says Crisil

By: | Published: December 8, 2018 2:57 AM

Experts believe the asset quality of retail loans is resilient, but the NBFC’s non-retail book has to be monitored for potential stress.

NBFCs are breathing easier in commercial paper (CP) market with close to Rs 1.5 lakh crore worth of CPs issued by them estimated to have been rolled over or redeemed in November.

Despite the liquidity crisis easing out for NBFCs, the growth in assets under management is expected to fall by half to 9-10% in the second half of the ongoing financial year, according to Crisil. Experts believe the asset quality of retail loans is resilient, but the NBFC’s non-retail book has to be monitored for potential stress.

NBFCs are breathing easier in commercial paper (CP) market with close to Rs 1.5 lakh crore worth of CPs issued by them estimated to have been rolled over or redeemed in November. The volume of fresh CP issuances is comparable to August, just before Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services (IL&FS) defaulted on commercial paper and jolted investor confidence for the next three months.

The rollover rate of commercial paper rose from about 40% in October to 75% in November, indicating a gradual improvement in liquidity. Also, funding options such as securitisation and retail bonds have enabled non-bank lenders to reduce reliance on short-term borrowings, a trend Crisil expects to continue. “The fear of stress in CP redemptions seems to be abating and there’s good activity on the corporate issuer front. However, NBFCs are relatively small players today,” said a money market expert.

Rates in the CP market have also relaxed by 25-50 basis points, however, they are still about 25-75 basis points higher than they were two to three months back. Highly-rated companies and firms backed by government or strong companies are paying anywhere between 8.5% and 9.0% for three month money. The others are shelling out as much as 9.3-9.8%, dealers said. The timely redemptions have improved the market sentiment but it could take a while before the volumes of CPs issued by NBFCs increase.

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