All eyes are on the upcoming February 2026 rejig of the MSCI Global Standard Index. Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research estimates that it may bring meaningful churn, with several stocks likely to see inflows and outflows. The announcement is scheduled for February 11. However, the actual index adjustment will take place on February 27.
Based on Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research estimates, let’s take a look at the stocks that are likely to be included and excluded from the MSCI Global Standard Index –
MSCI Februay rejig: Potential inclusions – Aditya Birla Capital, L&T Finance in the spotlight
Aditya Birla Capital and L&T Finance stand out, among the key stocks set to be included in the MSCI Global Standard Index..
Aditya Birla Capital is estimated to see inflows of $270 million. The 69 million shares is estimated to see 15 times its average daily trading volume. This makes Aditya Birla Capital one of Nuvama’s top conviction picks for the rejig.
In addition to this, L&T Finance is also expected to benefit meaningfully, with estimated inflows of $245 million, or 76 million shares. This is equivalent to around 9 times its average volume.
Borderline inclusion: Federal Bank on the watchlist
Federal Bank sits in the borderline inclusion category. If included, the stock could see inflows of $454 million, involving around 144 million shares. This is roughly 10 times its average trading volume.
Weight set to go up: AU Small Finance Bank, JSW Steel, Nykaa, Vishal Mega Mart in focus
Several existing MSCI constituents are likely to see weight upgrades. This typically results in incremental inflows. These include –
Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research estimates, AU Small Finance Bank could attract $172 million. Similarly, JSW Steel is estimated to see $134 million of inflows while Nykaa may see smaller but notable inflows of $28 million.
Furthermore, Vishal Mega Mart is also expected to benefit, with $23 million in inflows.
In all the weigh upgrade may result in inflows exceeding $350 million
Likely exclusion: IRCTC faces potential outflows
In terms of stocks that could be excluded and the potential downside therein, IRCTC is a key stock in focus. It is expected to face outflows of $148 million. This is equivalent to around 21 million shares, which is nearly 12 times its average trading volume.
Borderline exclusion: Astral under scanner
Astral falls under the borderline exclusion category. If excluded, the stock could see outflows of $161 million..
Conclusion
Overall, the February 2026 MSCI rejig reiterates Nuvama’s top convictions around financials and select consumption-linked names. The total inflow expectation exceed $500 million as a result of these changes.