Maruti Suzuki stock still a ‘BUY’, say brokerages after dismal Q4 results; but expect lower gains

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Updated: May 2, 2019 6:11:09 PM

Even as India’s major car maker Maruti Suzuki reported below than expected results, the brokerages are positive about the company and have maintained a ‘BUY’ on the stock, however with a lower target price.

Brokerages revise Maruti Suzuki?s target price downwards

Even as India’s major car maker Maruti Suzuki reported below than expected results, the brokerages are positive about the company and have maintained a ‘BUY’ on the stock, however with a lower target price. Maruti Suzuki reported a decline of around 5% in its net profit at Rs 1,795.6 crore on account of subdued sales volume and weak operating performance. Its total sales volume in Jan-Mar stood at 4.58 lakh vehicles, down 0.7% year-on-year. The company reported a revenue of Rs 21,459.4 crore, 1.4% up from a year ago.

However, for the full year of FY19, while its consolidated revenue grew by 4.9% year-on-year to Rs 86,068.5 crore, the net profit declined by 2.9% year-on-year to 7,650.6 crore.

Taking stock of the Q4 earnings of Maruti Suzuki, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers has maintained a ‘buy’ position on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 8,050 per share from Rs 8,482 per share. Another brokerage firm Reliance Securities has also maintained a ‘buy’ position on the stock at a target price of Rs 7,570 per share.

With regard to the long term, Anand Rathi said that it continues to be optimistic on the Maruti Suzuki stock because of factors such as the company’s healthy product mix, strong distribution network, outperformance to industry growth in FY20, cost reduction efforts, and capacity expansion from Gujarat plant and reducing commodity prices. The brokerage has revised its revenues and earnings estimates for the company for FY-20E and FY-21E numbers.

Reliance Securities believes that the industry demand situation may remain low in the first half of FY 20, while it would bounce back in the second half of the current fiscal. Further, BS-6 vehicles would help Maruti Suzuki in gaining further market share from the second half of FY20. Reliance Securities said that discounts will ebb due to the cost control measures by the company and overall inventory reduction at industry level. This would bring back pricing power for the passenger vehicles makers, helping Maruti Suzuki getting closer to its average EBIDTA margins of 14% going forward, Reliance Securities said in its report.

The brokerage firm hopes that the Maruti Suzuki’s volume will grow at 8% CAGR over FY19-FY21E. It has lowered its revenues and margin estimates on the back of pressure on margin. “We cut our EPS estimates by 10% and 7% for FY20E and FY21E respectively. In view of better visibility on the company’s BS-VI products and its affordable incremental pricing, we hope it improves on market share and margin improvement, going forward,” Reliance Securities said.

Reliance Securities has raised its valuation multiple for Maruti Suzuki from 21x to 22x. It has given a ‘BUY’ recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 7,570 from the earlier price of Rs 7,750 earlier.

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