Maruti Suzuki India share price has surged 5% after its Q4 results. Though the profit declined in Q4, most brokerages believe that healthy demand is likely to help offset cost headwinds. As a result, several top brokerages such as Motilal Oswal, Nuvama, and Morgan Stanley have reiterated their bullish stance, with estimates indicating as much as 39% upside from current levels.

The common thread across these reports is that despite short-term pressure on margins and profitability, the long-term growth outlook driven by sport utility vehicles (SUVs), exports, and new launches remain intact.

Let’s take a look at what brokerages are saying and their outlook –

Morgan Stanley on Maruti Suzuki: Sees an upside potential of 39%

Morgan Stanley remains the most bullish, assigning an ‘Overweight’ rating and a target price of Rs 17,895. This implies a potential upside of up to 39%.

As per the brokerage house report, the company is likely to outperform the broader industry in terms of growth.

The report noted, “Maruti Suzuki guided for 10% domestic volume growth in FY27, ahead of our estimate of 8%, implying outperformance versus the industry.”

The brokerage also flagged that margins may see near-term pressure before improving.

It added, “Margins are likely to trough in Q1 FY27 before recovering, as operating leverage, lower discounts, and a richer product mix kick in.”

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The company has seen a steady rise in first-time buyers, which is a positive demand indicator. Morgan Stanley in its report noted, “The company saw continued rise in first-time buyer share – from 42% in H1 FY26 to 48% in Q3 and 51% in Q4 FY26.”

Operational readiness also remains strong, with lean inventory levels. According to the brokerage report, exports continue to be a key strength area.

“Exports were a key driver of FY26 outperformance, with MSIL commanding a 49% share of India’s total PV exports.”

Motilal Oswal on Maruti Suzuki: Demand revival and strong pipeline in focus

Motilal Oswal has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, setting a target price of Rs 15,529. This implies an upside potential of around 20%. According to the brokerage report, the company’s Q4 performance saw some pressure on profitability.

“Maruti Suzuki’s Q4FY26 PAT declined 7% YoY to Rs 3,590 crore, below our estimate of Rs 4,000 crore. While operational performance was in line, the PAT miss was largely due to an MTM loss on its investment book,” said the brokerage house in its report,

However, the brokerage believes demand trends are improving, especially in the entry-level segment.

Furthermore, the brokerage in its report noted, “The GST rate cut has helped revive small car demand as vehicles are now much more affordable for price-conscious consumers. MSIL now enjoys a strong order backlog of 190k units.”

Motilal Oswal in its report said that the strong order book, along with upcoming launches, is expected to support growth going ahead.

The brokerage noted, “Given its order backlog and a healthy new launch pipeline, management is confident of posting 10% volume growth in the domestic market in FY27 estimates, which is expected to drive market share recovery for MSIL.”

The brokerage also highlighted that growth could help offset near-term cost pressures.

“Healthy demand is expected to help offset near-term cost headwinds. We expect MSIL to deliver a 16% earnings CAGR over FY26-28. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 15,529, valued at 25x FY28E EPS,” added the report.

Nuvama on Maruti Suzuki: Growth visibility backed by product expansion

Nuvama has also maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, with a slightly higher target price of Rs 15,800, suggesting an upside of about 22%. According to the brokerage report, steady growth in both revenue and profitability is expected over the next few years.

The brokerage believes multiple triggers could support growth, including policy support and new launches.

Nuvama, further in its report noted, “Led by benefits of GST cuts, new products, upcoming pay commission for government employees, and increase in exports, we forecast total volume/revenue CAGR at 7%/10% over FY26–28 estimated.”

Operationally, the company has also shown improvement in sales and inventory.

“Q4 retail sales grew 13% YoY to around 468,700 units, leading to a reduction in inventory levels to ~12 days.”

According to the brokerage report, future growth will also depend on new product launches and capacity expansion. “The product portfolio is expected to expand to 28 models by FY30E, including seven SUVs alongside several other launches,” added the report. 

Maruti: What investors need to know

Although short-term concerns like margin pressure and cost headwinds remain, brokerages believe that the broader growth story of Maruti Suzuki is still intact. 

Strong demand recovery, a growing SUV portfolio, rising exports, and capacity expansion are key factors driving optimism around the key auto sector stock.

Disclaimer: Investment analysis and target prices featured in this report are based on observations from third-party brokerage firms and do not constitute a direct offer or solicitation by this publication. As the stock market involves significant risk, readers are encouraged to consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any financial decisions based on these projections.

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