Market Mood: Modi expected to win election; no one believes otherwise, says Raamdeo Agrawal

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Updated: April 3, 2019 12:31:48 PM

Share market is already convinced Modi will retain power in the upcoming election 2019, veteran investor Raamdeo Agrawal said today.

Raamdeo Agrawal says the market is pricing in the return of the Modi-led government

Share market is already convinced Modi will retain power in the upcoming election 2019, veteran investor Raamdeo Agrawal said today. In the context of the current upsurge in Nifty and Sensex, both of which touched fresh all-time highs today morning, Motilal Oswal’s co-founder Raamdeo Agrawal told ET Now that the market is pricing in the return of the incumbent government, that too led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Today, the Nifty and Sensex hit fresh record highs, aided by strong global cues. Sensex zoomed 196 points intra-day to 39,253.67, while the Nifty made a new record high of 11,753.85 points.

The market believes that this government would come to power again, though with the reduced majority from 280 to 245-250 for BJP alone, Raamdeo Agrawal said. If for some reason the market falls after the election, there is a case to buy as investors would get two disequilibrium prices to swap, he said. “My sense is that election is a big event. There is a lot of volatility and we are watching it closely but it doesn’t make me move much,” he said.

The strong inflow by Foreign Institutional Investors, which poured in about Rs 34,000 crore in March, has been majorly driving a rally in equity markets. Notably, the FII inflows in March have been the best in the history of Indian stock markets. According to Agrawal, the domestic investors missed out on the rally.

Most of the FIIs have been buying through electronic traded fund or ETF and by some active involvement. Most domestic portfolios are not aligned with the FIIs portfolios, Agrawal said. “Their entire basket of buying is completely different from what we used for last 4-5 years. The portfolio alignment with FIIs is not true for everybody. We are still 5-6% lower than the index,” he added.

After a tepid run last year, the Sensex has been on a rising spree in this calendar year. Notably, the Sensex has gained over 19% from the 52-week low of 32,972 hit on April 4, 2018. In the calendar year so far, the Sensex has run up by more than 6.5%. In the previous fiscal, the Sensex had gained about 10.22%. The Sensex and Nifty have been on a rising spree in the last few weeks on account of a pre-election rally as investors bet on the return of Narendra Modi returning to power. Consequently, the Nifty has scaled an all-time high of 11,761 on back of improved optimism following sustained FII inflows. A stable rupee and expectations of an interest rate cut have also helped drive markets, noted B Gopkumar of Reliance Capital.

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