Maintain ‘hold’ on Den Networks with TP at Rs 74, suggests Edelweiss

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New Delhi | Published: April 20, 2019 1:26:26 AM

Den Networks (Den) reported a weak Q4FY19 with revenue, Ebitda and PAT belying our estimates. K

den networks, edelwissManagement did not disclose cable business’ ARPU and subscriber count for Q4FY19.

Den Networks (Den) reported a weak Q4FY19 with revenue, Ebitda and PAT belying our estimates. Key highlights: i) consolidated revenue dipped 11.4% QoQ; ii) cable subscription revenue slipped 8% QoQ due to the new tariff order’s implementation; iii) content cost fell 15.2% QoQ, boosting consolidated gross margin by 207 bps; and iv) Ebitda slid 22.3% QoQ & Ebitda margin contracted 191 bps QoQ primarily due to increase in staff & other expenditure as a percentage of revenue. Considering the slowdown in broadband and cable businesses, we retain 12 month forward EV/Ebitda of 8x and TP of `74. Maintain ‘HOLD’.

Management did not disclose cable business’ ARPU and subscriber count for Q4FY19. Hence, the cable business’ performance could not be compared on those metrics. Overall cable business fell 12% QoQ and 14% YoY.

The broadband business continued to be weak with subscriber base inching up to 118,000 from 116,000 in Q3FY19 and ARPU improving marginally to `562 (`559 in Q3FY19).
Competition from Airtel TV, Tata Sky as well as the expanding OTT space can exert pressure on cable ARPU, we believe. However, potential benefits from RJIO deal remain key monitorable. Reliance (via group entities) holds 78.62% in Den (after the open offer) as at March 31, 2019.

Reported net loss stood at `2.1 bn primarily due to exceptional items of `2.1bn. The exceptional items include: a) provision for impairment of trade receivables and fixed assets including set top boxes amounting to `1.8bn (pursuant to the New Regulatory Framework notified by TRAI and assessment carried out by the management); and b) one-time exceptional provision for certain tax-related matters and other assets amounting to `0.3bn.
Excluding exceptional items, adjusted net loss stood at `17mn.

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