Maintain ‘buy’ for Carborundum Universal with TP of Rs 418

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Published: February 22, 2018 3:56:02 AM

CUMI Q3FY18 result was in line with our estimate. Volumes across divisions have started to pick up with exception to channel abrasives, severed by GST rollout.

GST rollout, CUMI Q3FY18 result, Russia, EBIT margins, VAW, GST impactCompany’s Russian subsidiary VAW reported significant volume led growth in the quarter. (IE)

CUMI Q3FY18 result was in line with our estimate. Volumes across divisions have started to pick up with exception to channel abrasives, severed by GST rollout.
Industrial ceramics and EMD division have been witnessing rising demand across geographies. Company’s Russian subsidiary VAW reported significant volume led growth in the quarter. We are encouraged by the strong growth reported across key high margin products and expect earnings momentum to flow into FY19/20.
We expect turnaround across all the divisions led by global recovery for company’s products. In view of significant upside to our target price, we upgrade CUMI stock (ascribe PER 22x FY20 estimated earnings) to BUY (SELL earlier) with revised price target of Rs 418 (Rs 408 earlier).

CUMI consolidated revenue reported at R610 crore in Q3FY18 (+16% YY, +15.4% YY adjusted for GST impact) was driven by all the divisions. Standalone revenues reported revenue at Rs 410 crore driven by 45% YY growth in EMD division. Standalone abrasives sales, reported at Rs 220 crore grew 17%YY and 4.2% sequentially. Management stated that while the volumes in abrasives segment has started to improve, channel sales continues to remain muted due to GST led disruptions.
In international abrasives business, company’s Russian subsidiary VAW has reported meaningful pick-up in sales.

The abrasives part of Russian business has cut losses last year and is now operating at c.100% capacity utilization levels (Capacity 800000 tpa). CUMI has planned to expand capacity for thin wheeled and coated abrasives in Russia. Abrasives division reported, consolidated sales of Rs 270 crore in Q3FY18 (+15.4 % YY and 4.2% QQ) in Q3FY17. EBIT margins for abrasives segment reported at 13.5% in Q3FY18.

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