It looks like the decade-long bull market in U.S. stocks has more room to run, albeit with less vigor. That’s the latest view from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset management team, which forecasts U.S. equities could continue to gain for 2 1/2 more years as about half of the indicators the bank analyzes suggest that markets are mid-cycle rather than late cycle. The caveat is that “returns, while positive and indicative of a bull market, will likely not be as high or impressive as in the past,” global market strategist Samantha Azzarello said in an email Thursday.
The S&P 500 Index, up about 5 percent this year, is just one month and three days away from overtaking the longest bull run ever, which ended when the tech bubble burst in 2000. The benchmark for U.S. equities has risen more than fourfold since March 2009.
As the U.S. loses momentum, JPMorgan is advising clients to begin turning their attention to parts of the world that have fallen out of favor recently with stock investors: emerging markets.
“If either trade or rate concerns ease, higher beta and value assets such as EM equities and value stocks could stage a rally similar to the one during early 2016,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, wrote in a note July 17.
While pessimism toward developing-nation stocks is near the highest level in 23 years, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Risk-Love indicator, a growing number of strategists from BlackRock Inc. to Franklin Templeton Investments say the asset class is due for a rebound as stocks have slid 17 percent from their January peak.