Jefferies: Vaccine, dental, urology drive pharma growth

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Published: October 12, 2019 12:21:17 AM

Indian pharma growth improved to 11.9% in September vs August: 9.5% as volume growth improved to c.3.5%. 2Q20 growth at 11% is the highest in past three years.

Indian pharma market growth accelerated in September to 11.9% vs 9.5% in August.

Indian pharma growth improved to 11.9% in September vs August: 9.5% as volume growth improved to c.3.5%. 2Q20 growth at 11% is the highest in past three years. Chronic therapies accelerated and are now growing above industry.

Vaccine, dental and urology were the fastest growing while gynac and derma slowest. Sanofi, Alkem and Novartis saw moderation in growth while TRP, Pfizer and DRRD saw most acceleration. Among large cap LPC, DRRD and SUNP grew above industry while Cipla below.

Indian pharma market growth accelerated in September to 11.9% vs 9.5% in August. The second quarter growth stood at 11%, the highest quarterly growth in past three years.

Positively, chronic therapies saw acceleration in September and grew ahead of industry after weakness over past 2months. Acute therapies growth was flat MoM. The improvement in growth was led by volumes which were up 3.5% vs 1.1% in Aug. Three of the top 20 corporates saw a YoY decline in volumes — Alembic, Cipla and Glenmark. Respi, Opthal and Hormones saw Y-o-Y volume decline while Onco, Malaria, Vaccines saw double-digit volume growth. Pricing contribution to growth remained steady at 5.6%. New product contribution also remained steady at 2.9%.

Growth improved across therapies and only anti-infective, respi and malaria saw moderation. Vaccine, onco and derma saw the most acceleration. Chronic therapies like diabetes/cardio acccelerated and grew ahead of industry. Vaccine, Dental and Urology were the fastest growing while Respiratory, Gynac and Derma were the slowest growing therapies. For 2Q20, Dental, Urology and Vaccine were the fastest growing while Onco, Gynac and Derma the slowest.

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