India Equity Strategy: Jefferies is looking at opportunities in varied segments of the Indian market. Its September 1 India Equity Strategy report, titled Bottom-up Analyst Top Ideas, contains 28 ‘Buy’ ideas, up from 24 in June, alongside eight ‘Underperform’ calls.
Ten stocks have been newly added to the ‘Buy’ list: ICICI Bank, Cholamandalam, SBI Life Insurance Company, TVS Motor Company, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power, Hindustan Zinc, Tata Consumer Products, Eternal, Gland Pharma and Indian Hotels.
It’s, but its latest stock list has a common thread: each call is tied to a specific earnings trigger rather than a broad market view. In banks, the focus is on credit growth and profitability. In power and industrials, it is the order book and capacity build-out. In autos, metals and consumer names, the brokerage is looking for volume recovery, stronger realisations or new businesses to translate into earnings.
Financials: Loan growth, funding strength and better underwriting
Jefferies’ bank picks are centred on growth without giving up asset quality. ICICI Bank has a target price of Rs 1,750, implying an upside of 20.7%. The brokerage expects 15% loan growth annually on a compounded basis between FY26-FY29, credit costs of 40-50 basis points and 13% CAGR in core profit. It also points to the bank’s 15% year-on-year retail deposit growth and says its asset-quality performance has continued to surprise positively.
“The bank has managed to maintain margins well, reflecting strong funding franchise and underwriting discipline,” Jefferies said.
Axis Bank has a target price of Rs 1,700, implying an upside of 32.5%. Jefferies expects loan growth to normalise from 19% in the first quarter to 15% in FY27, while the changing loan mix should help NII growth. It expects credit costs to settle around 70-75 basis points and core earnings to grow at 17% CAGR through FY29.
State Bank of India has a target price of Rs 1,320, implying an upside of 24.5%. Bajaj Finance has a target price of Rs 1,280, implying an upside of 20.2%, with Jefferies forecasting 21% AUM CAGR through FY26-28 and expecting credit costs to moderate.
Cholamandalam Investment has a target price of Rs 2,100, implying an upside of 12.3%. Jefferies expects 21% AUM CAGR through FY26-28 and sees faster growth in higher-yielding CSEL and gold loans helping keep margins around 6.9%. It expects credit costs to decline to 1.4% by FY28 and EPS to grow at 28% CAGR.
Insurance: Distribution and product mix are doing the heavy lifting
SBI Life Insurance has a target price of Rs 2,600, implying an upside of 49.2%. Jefferies says the insurer has 16% market share in retail weighted premiums and expects APE growth to accelerate at 15% CAGR as the SBI channel recovers from a two-year low base. Higher agent recruitment and greater contribution from non-par and par savings policies are also expected to support growth.
The brokerage expects VNB margins to expand by 140 basis points to 29%, helped by a continuing move away from ULIPs, greater protection contribution, stable costs and conservative underwriting.
“SBI Life is our top pick in the life insurance space.”
Star Health has a target price of Rs 725, implying an upside of 27.7%. Jefferies expects gross premiums to grow at 15% CAGR through FY29, supported by channel investment, rider attachments and new products. It has already seen four consecutive quarters of improvement in the IFRS loss ratio and expects expense ratios to improve through lower renewal commissions, scale benefits and straight-through processing.
Power and industrials: Order book is the story
Siemens Energy India has a target price of Rs 4,800, implying an upside of 48.5%. Jefferies expects 43% EPS CAGR through FY28, driven by operating leverage and India’s power-capex pipeline. Its June-quarter order book was up 16% year on year at Rs 19,100 crore, equivalent to 2.5 times FY25 sales.
The brokerage expects operating leverage to lift margins by 475 basis points to 24% by FY28. Fixed expenses are expected to decline as a percentage of sales as the business scales.
“Operating leverage should drive 475 bps margin expansion to 24% in FY28E vs FY25.”
JSW Energy has a target price of Rs 720, implying an upside of 36.4%. The call is tied to renewable capacity execution and the resulting increase in earnings capacity.
Emmvee Photovoltaic Power has a target price of Rs 440, implying an upside of 36.8%. Jefferies points to its order book, early positioning in TOPCon cells and debt-free balance sheet.
Polycab India has a target price of Rs 11,100, implying an upside of 20.7%. Jefferies expects demand from power spending, private capex, housing and renewables to support the cables and wires business.
NTPC and Hitachi Energy India are also part of the 28-stock ‘Buy’ list, although the report’s valuation table does not provide corresponding target prices for NTPC.
Metals: Commodity prices are creating earnings room
Hindustan Zinc has a target price of Rs 750, implying an upside of 25.5%. Jefferies’ zinc assumptions for FY27-28 remain 9-11% below spot prices, leaving room for earnings estimates to rise if current prices persist.
Silver is another part of the thesis. The brokerage’s FY27-28 silver assumptions of US$60-63 an ounce remain 5-9% below spot. Hindustan Zinc is also expanding refined-metal capacity by 30% to about 1.5 million tonnes and silver capacity to 830 tonnes by the second quarter of FY29.
“Despite ongoing capacity expansions at both companies, we expect HZ’s net cash position to increase from Rs52bn in FY26 to Rs227bn by FY29.”
JSW Steel has a target price of Rs 1,650, implying an upside of 25.6%. Jefferies expects the company’s capacity expansion and domestic steel pricing to support earnings, with EPS expected to treble over FY26-29.
Autos: Two-wheelers are leading the recovery
TVS Motor has a target price of Rs 5,425, implying an upside of 25.3%. Jefferies notes that two-wheeler industry wholesales growth improved from just 1% year on year in the first half of FY26 to 20-21% in the second half and FY27 year to date. Registrations are also up 18% year to date.
Exports add another growth lever. India’s two-wheeler exports grew at a 22% CAGR over FY24-26 after falling sharply in FY22-24, and were up 34% year on year in FY27 year to date. Jefferies expects TVS’ exports to grow at 14% CAGR through FY29.
Bharat Forge has a target price of Rs 2,500, implying an upside of 21.7%. Jefferies sees a recovery in North American heavy trucks, growth in defence and stronger industrial exports as the main earnings drivers. Its auto research shows Bharat Forge among the stronger-performing names in the sector during the year.
Consumer: New businesses are becoming meaningful
Tata Consumer Products has a target price of Rs 1,450, implying an upside of 39.6%. Jefferies expects steady volume growth in the core India portfolio while the company’s newer categories scale up. The brokerage also sees scope for margin support from lower coffee prices.
Eternal has a target price of Rs 415, implying an upside of 26.6%. Jefferies sees food delivery as the cash-generating base, while Blinkit remains the principal growth engine as quick-commerce economics improve.
“Eternal remains a core long-term compounder.”
Grasim Industries has a target price of Rs 3,910, implying an upside of 17.8%. Its portfolio spans fibres, chemicals, building materials, paints and B2B e-commerce, giving Jefferies exposure to several areas of infrastructure and manufacturing demand.
The brokerage says Grasim has reached the number-three domestic position in paints by volume, including putty, and sees a credible path towards number two. EBITDA breakeven for paints is expected by FY28-29.
Healthcare: Capacity expansion meets a pharmaceutical recovery
Fortis Healthcare has a target price of Rs 1,125, implying an upside of 23.9%. Jefferies expects about 400 new beds in FY27 and more than 1,700 beds over four to five years, with brownfield expansion allowing relatively quick breakeven. It forecasts 14% company-level revenue CAGR and 17% EBITDA CAGR through FY29.
The diagnostics business is also expected to improve as competitive pressure eases. Jefferies expects 10% revenue CAGR and 15% EBITDA CAGR in diagnostics through FY29.
Gland Pharma has a target price of Rs 3,350, implying an upside of 16%. Its Cenexi subsidiary, which contributes around 30% of revenue, has reached sustainable EBITDA breakeven. Jefferies expects the US business to deliver high-teens growth as recently launched products scale and the complex-product portfolio expands.
The company has also signed several complex-product CDMO contracts with potential revenue equivalent to 6-12% of FY26 revenue, with launches expected in CY29-30.
Technology, telecom and chemicals
Coforge has a target price of Rs 2,040, implying an upside of 2.6%. Jefferies expects organic revenue growth of about 15% CAGR through FY29, supported by the executable order book, the ramp-up of a US$230 million deal and cross-selling opportunities following the Encora combination.
Bharti Airtel has a target price of Rs 2,400, implying an upside of 31.1%. Jefferies expects tariff increases, subscriber premiumisation, homes and enterprise services to support growth in its India operations.
Navin Fluorine has a target price of Rs 9,045, implying an upside of 4.2%. Jefferies expects CDMO contracts, cooling technology and fluorochemicals to support strong revenue and earnings growth.
Hospitality and real estate
Indian Hotels has a target price of Rs 875, implying an upside of 21.7%. Jefferies expects hotel RevPAR growth, network expansion and newer businesses to support earnings growth. Its research also points to active asset management, upgrades and capacity expansion as additional sources of revenue.
Adani Ports has a target price of Rs 2,160, implying an upside of 32.1%. Jefferies expects port volumes, capacity additions, market-share gains and integrated logistics to support earnings.
GMR Airports has a target price of Rs 135, implying an upside of 43.8%. The brokerage expects passenger traffic growth and higher non-aero revenue to support a 14% EBITDA CAGR through FY29.
Lodha Developers remains a ‘Buy’ idea, but Jefferies’ valuation table does not provide a corresponding target price or upside percentage for the stock.
Jefferies’ 28 ‘Buy’ stocks and implied upside
| Stock | Rating | Target price | Implied upside |
| Coforge | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,040 | 2.6% |
| Navin Fluorine | ‘Buy’ | Rs 9,045 | 4.2% |
| Cholamandalam Investment | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,100 | 12.3% |
| Gland Pharma | ‘Buy’ | Rs 3,350 | 16.0% |
| Grasim Industries | ‘Buy’ | Rs 3,910 | 17.8% |
| Bajaj Finance | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,280 | 20.2% |
| ICICI Bank | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,750 | 20.7% |
| Polycab India | ‘Buy’ | Rs 11,100 | 20.7% |
| Bharat Forge | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,500 | 21.7% |
| Indian Hotels | ‘Buy’ | Rs 875 | 21.7% |
| Fortis Healthcare | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,125 | 23.9% |
| State Bank of India | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,320 | 24.5% |
| TVS Motor | ‘Buy’ | Rs 5,425 | 25.3% |
| Hindustan Zinc | ‘Buy’ | Rs 750 | 25.5% |
| JSW Steel | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,650 | 25.6% |
| Eternal | ‘Buy’ | Rs 415 | 26.6% |
| Star Health | ‘Buy’ | Rs 725 | 27.7% |
| Bharti Airtel | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,400 | 31.1% |
| Adani Ports | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,160 | 32.1% |
| Axis Bank | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,700 | 32.5% |
| JSW Energy | ‘Buy’ | Rs 720 | 36.4% |
| Emmvee Photovoltaic Power | ‘Buy’ | Rs 440 | 36.8% |
| Tata Consumer Products | ‘Buy’ | Rs 1,450 | 39.6% |
| Hindustan Aeronautics | ‘Buy’ | Rs 6,800 | 41.8% |
| GMR Airports | ‘Buy’ | Rs 135 | 43.8% |
| Siemens Energy India | ‘Buy’ | Rs 4,800 | 48.5% |
| SBI Life Insurance | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,600 | 49.2% |
| Lodha Developers | ‘Buy’ | Not stated | Not stated |
| NTPC | ‘Buy’ | Not stated | Not stated |
| UltraTech Cement | ‘Buy’ | Not stated | Not stated |
Conclusion
Jefferies’ latest India Equity Strategy brings together 28 ‘Buy’ ideas with very different earnings drivers, from bank credit growth and insurance distribution to power-equipment orders, defence execution, commodity prices, auto exports, healthcare expansion and consumer businesses scaling into new categories. The highest stated upside is attached to SBI Life Insurance, Siemens Energy India and GMR Airports, while the full list gives the brokerage exposure across a wide range of domestic growth themes.
Disclaimer: This article is based solely on Jefferies’ India | Equity Strategy report dated September 1, 2026. Ratings, price targets, estimates and brokerage views are subject to change and aren’t guarantees of future performance. Implied upside figures are based on the prices and targets stated in the report. This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be treated as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.