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Initiate with ‘buy’ on Future Consumer with TP of Rs 77

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Published: April 13, 2018 2:45:08 AM

Factoring these, we estimate FCL to clock revenue CAGR of 42.5% and EBITDA margin to expand by 379bps over FY17-20. Initiate coverage with ‘BUY’ and DCF-based TP of Rs 77.

Future Consumer (FCL), within just five years, has made its mark in the branded FMCG market. (Reuters)

Future Consumer (FCL), within just five years, has made its mark in the branded FMCG market. Through its differentiated offerings, the company is not only expanding existing categories, but also launching innovative products in emerging categories. This, along with prudent pricing strategy, ensures higher wallet share of consumers. Moreover, FCL has efficiently leveraged group company Future Retail’s (FRL) retail muscle— 879 stores—giving it competitive edge. Factoring these, we estimate FCL to clock revenue CAGR of 42.5% and EBITDA margin to expand by 379bps over FY17-20. Initiate coverage with ‘BUY’ and DCF-based TP of Rs 77. FCL has its finger on the pulse of evolving trends in consumer tastes and preferences. To play these themes, the company is not only expanding existing categories via differentiated offerings, but also launching innovative products in emerging categories.

Moreover, prudent pricing strategy—at a discount to competition in “me-too” products and at a premium in niche products—ensures higher consumers’ wallet share. FCL’s success story is bolstered by the formidable retail muscle of group company FRL—one of India’s largest retailers. With 879 stores and >12mn sq ft of retail space under FRL’s belt, FCL has had a huge head start (~77% of revenue comes from FRL’s retail formats; ~67% excluding Aadhaar and Nilgiris), helping its products create brand equity with a loyal customer base. Moreover, FRL’s organic and inorganic growth initiatives (Retail 3.0) are expected to further expand FCL’s opportunity pie (estimate store count to reach 1,860 by FY22).

We estimate FCL to clock revenue CAGR of 42.5% and EBITDA margins to expand 379bps over FY17-20 underpinned by: i) robust innovation drive; ii) retail footprint expansion; iii) operational efficiencies; and iv) favourable product mix. We also expect the company to turn profitable from FY19, FCF positive from FY20 and generate RoE of 12.9% by FY20 (negative for 9mFY18).

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