India doing better than global benchmark in controlling virus spread

By: |
March 25, 2020 2:46 AM

States with highest number of cases – Maharashtra, UP, Kerala, Delhi and Karnataka – are still well below the global benchmark.

A 33% increase would have meant an exponential growth in cases. A 33% increase would have meant an exponential growth in cases.

Globally, the coronavirus positive cases are doubling every 2.1 days and there is a 33% increase per day – the benchmark. India has done well to remain well below these levels. So, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of a 21-day lockdown is the kind of measure the country needs to remain below the global benchmark and succeed in containing the virus. A 33% increase would have meant an exponential growth in cases. States with highest number of cases – Maharashtra, UP, Kerala, Delhi and Karnataka – are still well below the global benchmark.

If we abide the strict measures put in place by the government for at least 10-11 days, India will be in a better position, said CPC Analytics, a data analytics company, based on an analysis of data shared by the ministry of health and family welfare. While India is testing less than many other countries, it has taken measures that are far ahead of others, and this has helped control the spread so far, the data showed, Sahil Deo, founder of CPC Analytics, said. Even a country like Germany started putting in place these kind of measures only after they had 25,000 cases, he said.

Deo said the 33% increase line suggests doubling of cases every 2.1 days globally, which is seen as the benchmark rate of growth for this virus, and this implies that if states in India stay below this line, then the country is doing a decent job at containing the spread of the virus, Deo said. If the country can sustain it for over two weeks, it will do well in containing the spread.

The logarithmic scale has been used as people understand lines better and this by now has been the standard practice across international and governmental agencies. CPC has looked into the number of confirmed cases at the state level in India to understand the daily growth rate. “We feel that putting out credible information is the most meaningful way in which we, as data scientists working in the field of social sciences, can contribute to the containment of the Covid-19 pandemic. The day where the country’s tenth case was reported has been counted as day zero to make it more comparable as chronology doesn’t allow for this sort of comparison.

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