IMD predicts near normal monsoon, but stock market may not gain much; here’s why

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Updated: April 16, 2019 5:03:04 PM

Even as the weather department predicted a near-normal monsoon, stock markets may not see much impact, said analysts.

sensex, nify, stock market, bse, nseSimilarly, in CY14, the 30-scrip index gave over 80 per cent return, while gains were nearly 30 per cent in FY09.

Even as the weather department predicted a near-normal monsoon, stock markets may not see much impact, said analysts. The historical data suggest the markets are not affected by such developments.

In 2014, when IMD had predicted rainfall at 95 per cent of long-term averages (LTA) rainfall (actual was 88 per cent), Sensex returned nearly 19 per cent gain during May-September period. The Sensex surged around 50 per cent in the same period in 2009, even as monsoon rains declined to 77 per cent from the earlier IMD projection of 93 per cent.

Similarly, in CY14, the 30-scrip index gave over 80 per cent return, while gains were nearly 30 per cent in FY09.

Also read: Sensex, Nifty at record high: 5 factors driving market today

“Markets do not generally guided beyond a point by good or bad monsoons. Usually after such forecasts which predict higher or lower rainfalls, markets tend to give only a sentimental reaction and that too for a relatively short time,” Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA told Financial Express Online.

“Markets tend to remain guided more by macro economic factors and technicals than solely by monsoons. It may happen that despite good monsoon, overbought technicals or adverse macro economical factors play a spoilsport with the markets,” he added.

Commenting on the correlation between the stock market and monsoon,  veteran investor Sandip Sabharwal told Financial Express Online, “Stock Markets linkage with monsoons is tenuous at best. As such the impact will be more sentimental at this stage. The actual progress of the monsoons on agricultural growth is real, however that is known only by October. As such it is a sentiment positive at this stage”.

Since this is the first monsoon after elections its impact on the markets might be even lower as it will be overshadowed by the election results and policies of the new government, he added.

However, not all experts are convinced about the genuinity of the data on account of large variance in it.

“Since there is a large amount of variance in data, it’s not right to attribute any rise or fall in the stock markets to it. The data is not good enough for anyone to take a call on what likely would be actual scenario. One must not read too much into the data as there is not much clarity in the data,” Abhimanyu Sofat, Head of Research, IIFL, told Financial Express Online.

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