With most parts of the country getting ‘normal’ or ‘excess’ rainfall in the first half of monsoon season (June-July), the India Meteorological Department on Monday stated that rainfall during the second leg (August-September) would be ‘above normal’ at 107% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), with a model error of ± 8%.
The Met department also reiterated its June’s forecast that overall rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September) will be 106% of LPA, which is set to give huge boost to kharif activities following two successive years of ‘deficient’ monsoon (2014 and 2015). IMD also said that the quantum of rainfall in August is likely to be 104% of LPA as was the forecast in June. IMD correctly predicted the quantum of rainfall for July which ended with a rain surplus of 107% of LPA.
According to IMD, the quantum of rainfall during June 1-July 31 has been more than 454 mm which is at par with the benchmark. Till now, 30% of the country’s area has got ‘excess’ rainfall while 49% has received ‘normal’ rainfall. Only 21% of the areas have received deficient rainfall. With the exception of Saurashtra, Kutch, Gujarat regions and Bihar where rainfall has been ‘deficient’, most of the regions across the country has so far received ‘normal’ or ‘excess’ monsoon rainfall.
According to a Met department statement, the strong El Nino event, which caused deficient rainfall in 2015, has ended in May, 2016 and is currently at ‘neutral’ conditions. It said that there is strong probability of El Nino neutral conditions to continue during remaining two months of the monsoon season. “However, some of the global models suggest development of weak La Nina conditions in the later part of the season,” an IMD statement said.
While June rainfall constitute 18% of the total rainfall received during monsoon period, the showers during July (33%) and August (29%) are critical for kharif crops sowing.