The Hindustan Copper share price slipped almost 3% intra-day today and has declined 15% in the last one month. The ongoing crisis across the Middle East and the escalation of the violence have not just led to supply disruption but also impacted industrial operations. 

Domestic brokerage house, Anand Rathi, however, remains positive despite the sharp price action. They have retained a ‘Buy’ rating and set a target price of Rs 650, implying an upside of 31.13% from current levels. They are constructive on the longer-term prospect, as most of Hindustan Copper’s chemicals are sourced locally, which limits its exposure to global supply disruptions.

Long-term growth outlook intact; Copper prices fall about 5% 

Anand Rathi is positive on Hindustan Copper as it expects to see a boost in its production capacity in the long term. It has received a composite licence in January for the Baghwari-Khirkhori block which, after being operational, could support the company’s production growth beyond FY31 and help expand its ore production capacity beyond 12.2 million tonnes.

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The report also noted that copper prices have already corrected by about 5% since the end of February. Typically copper prices correct when geopolitical tension intensify.

Fuel cost rise could hit Hindustan Copper’s margins

However, geopolitical tensions could still push up freight costs due to higher crude oil prices.

“As ‘consumption of power, fuel and water’ accounts for approximately 7% of revenue, any increase in fuel cost would have a direct impact on operating margin,” Anand Rathi noted.

Anand Rathi cuts copper price forecasts by 3.1% for FY27, FY28

Anand Rathi has trimmed its estimates for copper prices by about 3.1% for FY27 and FY28, noting that the Middle East—which accounts for only about 2% of global mined copper production—could still trigger short-term volatility in commodity markets amid escalating tensions.

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“Considering the evolving macro environment, we believe prices may remain under pressure in the near term,” Anand Rathi said.

Copper prices have already corrected by about 5% since the end of February, when geopolitical tensions intensified.

Anand Rathi cuts EBITDA forecast by 8.7% for FY26

Anand Rathi has also cut its EBITDA estimates for Hindustan Copper, citing delays in production ramp-up and higher freight costs.

“Factoring in slightly delayed ramp-up in mining volumes along with potential headwinds from higher freight costs linked to crude price movements, we have trimmed our EBITDA estimate by 8.7% for FY26, 5.2% for FY27 and 5% for FY28,” Anand Rathi said.

The brokerage expects Hindustan Copper’s ore production to increase by around 5% year-on-year, although it may remain slightly below earlier guidance.

“Delay in commencement of production at the Kendadih mine and the likely ramp-up at Kolihan mine from Q4FY26 to Q1FY27 could weigh on near-term output,” the brokerage noted.

Conclusion: Long-term outlook remains positive

Despite near-term headwinds, the brokerage remains optimistic about Hindustan Copper’s long-term growth prospects.

It expects strong demand for copper from sectors such as energy transition, electric mobility and renewable energy infrastructure.

Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor.