Macquarie has reaffirmed its positive stance on a diverse set of Indian companies. The brokerage has maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating on HDFC Bank, NTPC, Sapphire Foods India, CG Power & Industrial Solutions and Dalmia Bharat, citing governance clarity, capacity expansion, resilient operating performance and infrastructure-led demand as key drivers.
Macquarie believes investors should focus on improving execution, stronger earnings visibility and long-term growth drivers rather than near-term volatility. From governance concerns easing at India’s largest private lender to expanding power generation, improving restaurant operations, a growing industrial order book and aggressive cement capacity additions, Macquarie argues that the companies mentioned below remain well positioned to outperform over the next 12 months.
Macquarie on HDFC Bank: ‘Outperform’
Macquarie has retained its ‘Outperform’ rating on HDFC Bank with a 12-month target price of Rs 1,150, implying a 12-month total shareholder return (TSR) of 56.8%.
The brokerage believes the conclusion of the bank’s internal disciplinary review into the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) deposit issue removes one of the biggest overhangs on the stock. The board concluded that the episode represented business overreach rather than misconduct, finding no evidence of malafide intent, personal enrichment or improper motive.
While warning letters and Rs 1 lakh penalties were issued to Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Sashidhar Jagdishan, Chief Financial Officer Srinivasan Vaidyanathan and Group Head of Retail Assets Arvind Vohra, Macquarie believes the findings significantly improve the prospects of Jagdishan receiving a fresh three-year term. With the governance review complete, the brokerage expects investor focus to shift back to management continuity and the bank’s earnings trajectory.
Macquarie on NTPC: ‘Outperform’
Macquarie has also maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating on NTPC, assigning a 12-month target price of Rs 480, translating into a 40.8% TSR.
The brokerage said NTPC’s June-quarter results reinforced confidence in its long-term growth outlook, with consolidated net profit rising 12% year-on-year, supported by strong capacity additions and higher plant availability.
The company added 1.8 GW of generation capacity during the quarter, including thermal, hydro and renewable projects, taking total installed capacity to 90.9 GW, while another 35.7 GW remains under construction. Macquarie expects the regulated asset base to continue expanding steadily alongside renewable investments and values the company on a sum-of-the-parts basis, assigning a premium valuation to its regulated business while valuing NTPC Green separately.
Macquarie on Sapphire Foods India: ‘Outperform’
Macquarie has reiterated its ‘Outperform’ recommendation on Sapphire Foods India with a 12-month target price of Rs 200, implying a TSR of 11.9%.
The brokerage said the Yum! Brands franchise operator delivered first-quarter EBITDA that was 4% ahead of both Macquarie’s and Street estimates, driven by healthy same-store sales growth across KFC and Pizza Hut. It highlighted continued strength in KFC margins, improving dine-in trends at Pizza Hut led by Tamil Nadu and healthy same-store sales growth in Sri Lanka as key positives.
At the same time, Macquarie noted that the broader demand environment remains soft, with July trends appearing stronger mainly because of the timing of the Shravan season, while food delivery growth and wage and energy cost pressures in Sri Lanka continue to warrant monitoring. Even so, the brokerage believes Sapphire’s improving operating flexibility and resilient brand performance justify maintaining its positive stance.
Macquarie on CG Power & Industrial Solutions: ‘Outperform’
Macquarie continues to rate CG Power and Industrial Solutions ‘Outperform’, with a 12-month target price of Rs 1,090, indicating a 26.1% TSR.
Although the brokerage described the company’s first-quarter performance as below expectations, it remains constructive on the long-term outlook. Revenue increased 14% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in the Power Systems business, while reported profit rose 17% despite a 110 basis-point decline in EBITDA margin because of provisions in the Industrial Systems segment.
Macquarie highlighted a 45% increase in the order backlog, a robust demand pipeline, improving profitability and the commencement of commercial semiconductor production as important long-term catalysts.
The brokerage expects the company to benefit from higher spending on power transmission, railways, industrial recovery and its expanding semiconductor business, while maintaining its sum-of-the-parts-based target price.
Macquarie on Dalmia Bharat: ‘Outperform’
Macquarie has maintained its ‘Outperform’ recommendation on Dalmia Bharat despite lowering its 12-month target price to Rs 2,237 from Rs 2,522, the revised target implies an upside of 22% TSR.
The brokerage believes Dalmia Bharat remains well positioned to outpace the industry through capacity-led expansion, regional diversification and a continued focus on costs. The company reported first-quarter consolidated EBITDA of Rs 800 crore, which was 5% ahead of Macquarie’s estimate, helped by stronger-than-expected realisations, while net debt increased to Rs 5,700 crore following inorganic expansion.
Macquarie expects the company to deliver volume growth of more than 10% CAGR over FY26-FY28 as fresh capacity comes on stream and believes the balance sheet remains manageable despite elevated leverage. While higher energy costs prompted earnings estimate cuts and a lower target price, the brokerage continues to view the stock’s risk-reward profile as attractive, supported by capacity expansion and resilient cement pricing.
Conclusion
Taken together, Macquarie’s latest recommendations show the brokerage’s preference for businesses where company-specific execution is complemented by favourable structural trends. The brokerage believes these companies are positioned to deliver sustainable earnings growth over the medium term, reinforcing its conviction in maintaining ‘Outperform’ ratings across its latest coverage universe.
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