What could be the next trigger for HDFC Bank shares? According to Jefferies’ latest report, all eyes are on the RBI’s response and the possible name of the candidate who will get the top job at the bank. .
The lender is nearing the appointment of its next Chief Executive Officer (CEO). For investors, this is more than a leadership change.
Jefferies has retained its ‘Buy’ rating on HDFC Bank and set a target price of Rs 880 per share. This indicates an upside potential of around 20% from the current market price.
What will the new leadership need to address? Here’s what the global investment bank report says –
HDFC Bank: CEO transition may unlock next growth phase
The leadership change is one of the key factors in focus. Jefferies expects HDFC Bank to announce its next CEO soon, which could reduce uncertainty around the transition.
“CEO Appointment Nears; Execution Could Aid a Rerating,” added the report.
According to the Jefferies report, the new CEO may review the senior team and business structure after taking charge. The idea is to complete any required changes quickly and then focus on areas where the bank needs to improve.
“When a new CEO takes charge, they tend to reorganize the top team and business structures to better achieve growth, profitability, and governance objectives,” noted Jefferies report.
HDFC Bank: Deposits and fee income remain key questions
One area that needs attention is retail deposits. According to the report, HDFC Bank’s Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) retail deposit growth stood at 12%, compared with 15% for ICICI Bank and 14% for State Bank of India.
The bank has, however, seen stronger momentum in Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR-B) deposits. Jefferies said HDFC Bank mobilised $11-12 billion in two months.
The report further added, “This should help the bank to refinance high-cost deposits/borrowings at slightly lower rates.”
Fee income is another area Jefferies is monitoring. As per the report, fee growth on a Constant Exchange Basis (CEB) was 8% and 11% year-on-year in the past two quarters.
The brokerage attributed the slower growth to areas including credit cards, third-party product income and retail liabilities. At the same time, it flagged the potential impact of bancassurance fees.
Loan mix and valuation could hold the key
Where the bank grows its loans could also matter. Jefferies noted stronger growth in corporate and secured lending, while the share of loans to Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) has increased.
The brokerage believes a calibrated shift towards segments such as Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) and business banking loans, gold loans and unsecured personal loans could support risk-adjusted margins and Return on Assets (ROA).
According to Jefferies, HDFC Bank’s valuation gap with peers including ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and State Bank of India has changed since March 18, 2026.
“Valuations have scope to rerate with an improved earnings trajectory,” added the report.
What investors need to watch
Jefferies has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating based on 1.6 times September 2028 Price-to-Book (PB) value. Its American Depositary Receipt (ADR) target price is $28.
Disclaimer: This article is based on research reports from one or more brokerage firms and is for informational purposes only. The views, target prices, and recommendations expressed are those of the respective brokerage firms and do not reflect the official policy or position of Financial Express. This should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.