JP Morgan has initiated coverage on Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the parent company of stock broking platform Groww, with an Overweight rating and a March 2027 price target of Rs 210 per share, implying roughly 30% upside from its current market price.
The American investment bank calls it the “most lucrative India-listed consumer internet platform” and argues the market is undervaluing a business that combines a discount broker, lending operation and wealth platform inside one ecosystem.
The report forecasts a 33% revenue growth annually on a compounded basis and about 36% EBITDA and profit after tax growth projections between FY26 and FY28.
At its current valuation of about 27 times FY28 earnings, JP Morgan says Groww trades at the lowest multiple among major listed internet businesses in India and expects that gap to narrow as the company scales.
Here are the key reasons behind the bullish call.
- Groww is rapidly gaining market share
Groww’s retail cash market share on the National Stock Exchange has climbed sharply over the past year.
“Groww’s share of cash equities has grown from 18% in Q2FY25 to 29% in Q3FY26, while derivatives share has risen from 11% to 18%,” JP Morgan wrote in a March 3 report.
The gains came despite major regulatory changes that slowed trading activity across the derivatives market.
In 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India increased the minimum contract size of index derivatives to a range of Rs 15 lakh to Rs 20 lakh from Rs 5 lakh to Rs 10 lakh earlier and reduced the number of weekly expiry contracts.
According to Redseer Research, those changes caused notional derivatives turnover to drop about 38% between June 2024 and June 2025. Groww continued to add share during the period.
- Most new users arrive organically
Customer acquisition at Groww relies heavily on organic growth rather than advertising.
“More than 80% of customer additions over the last three years have been organic,” JP Morgan said in the report, noting that the figure reached 83.63% in FY25.
The impact on spending has been significant. The company’s customer acquisition expense as a percentage of revenue fell from 21% in FY23 to about 12% in FY25 and roughly 10% by the third quarter of FY26.
JP Morgan expects that ratio to remain close to 11% through FY28.
Retention metrics also remain strong. “Customer retention for users active on the platform for three years stands at 77.7%,” the brokerage said.
- A young user base supports long-term growth
Groww’s user profile stands out across the broking industry because of its age distribution.
“Seventy five percent of users are below 34 years of age,” JP Morgan said, adding that the demographic profile is younger than that of other digital brokers in India.
The brokerage believes that acquiring users early in their investing journey can translate into long term activity on the platform as incomes and savings grow.
Alternative data also shows the company leading its peers in monthly app downloads and monthly active users, with roughly 40% share of downloads across major broking apps.
- Revenue mix is becoming more balanced
For several years Groww depended heavily on derivatives trading. In FY23 derivatives accounted for 74% of revenue while broking as a whole generated about 90%. That dependence has begun to decline as newer services expand.
“Revenue concentration in derivatives and broking declined from 74% and 90% in FY23 to 56% and 76% in the first nine months of FY26,” JP Morgan wrote.
The bank expects the derivatives share of revenue to fall further to about 51% by FY28 as products such as margin trading, loans against securities, commodities and wealth services grow.
- Operating margins continue to rise
Groww already runs at margins that are high for a consumer internet business.
Adjusted EBITDA margin increased from 36% in FY23 to 59% in FY25.
“We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to expand to about 67% by FY28 as the company benefits from operating leverage,” JP Morgan said.
Technology infrastructure costs do not increase at the same pace as trading volumes, which allows profitability to improve as activity rises.
Operating expenses have also normalised after a temporary increase caused by employee stock option costs. Cost to operate as a share of revenue declined from 49% in FY24 to about 12% in FY25 and is expected to stabilise near 14%.
JP Morgan forecasts revenue of Rs 4,406 crore in FY26, rising to Rs 6,018 crore in FY27 and Rs 7,792 crore in FY28. Adjusted net income could reach roughly Rs 4,019 crore by FY28 with earnings per share around Rs 6.4.
- Valuation framework behind the price target
JP Morgan calculates its target price using a price to earnings growth approach that combines global brokers and Indian internet companies.
The bank assigns a 60% weight to Indian internet firms including Zomato, PB Fintech, Nykaa and Paytm, and a 40% weight to global discount brokers such as Robinhood, Futu Holdings and Interactive Brokers.
The resulting weighted PEG ratio of about 0.97 times implies a FY28 price to earnings multiple of roughly 35 times.
Applying that multiple to FY28 earnings per share close to Rs 6 produces a price target of Rs 210 for March 2027.
At present Groww trades near 27 times FY28 earnings. Internet companies in India trade at an average multiple close to 51 times, while market infrastructure businesses such as BSE, MCX and CDSL trade around 32 times and global discount brokers near 17 times.
- JP Morgan projections exceed consensus estimates
JP Morgan’s projections are higher than the Bloomberg consensus across several metrics.
For FY28, the brokerage expects revenue of Rs 7,792 crore compared with consensus estimates around Rs 7,287 crore. Adjusted EBITDA could reach Rs 5,189 crore compared with consensus forecasts near Rs 4,742 crore.
JP Morgan said faster growth in commodities trading, margin trading facility products, consumer credit and wealth management could push revenue above current market estimates.
Risks remain from regulation and market cycles
The report also discussed several risks facing the company.
Regulatory intervention remains the largest threat. Changes introduced in 2024 led to a decline in active trading accounts.
Changes in transaction taxes also affect activity levels. The Union Budget raised the securities transaction tax on futures to 0.05% from 0.02%, which contributed to a 7% decline in Groww’s share price in early February 2026.
A prolonged decline in Indian equity markets could also weigh on revenue because broking continues to generate roughly three quarters of the company’s income.
Conclusion
JP Morgan’s recommendation rests on three main arguments. Indian capital markets remain underpenetrated, Groww continues to add users at relatively low acquisition cost, and the technology platform allows profitability to increase as activity grows.