A supply shock tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to ripple across global oil markets, with Asia facing the sharpest pressure. A report by Goldman Sachs dated April 3, 2026, examines product-level shortages, price movements, and on-ground signals of stress.
The brokerage listed a detailed, region-specific assessment of tightening supply conditions, rising prices, and early signs of fuel rationing. Its analysis draws on inventory data, trade flows, and real-time market behaviour to assess how shortages could unfold if disruptions persist.
5 signs of fuel shortage risks ahead
- Goldman Sachs on shrinking product buffers in Asia
Goldman Sachs begins with supply fundamentals, pointing out that refined product inventories in several Asian economies were already thin before the disruption. According to the data presented on page 3 of the report, average stock levels in parts of Asia stood at roughly one month of demand, compared with about 50 days in Europe.
The pressure is more acute in petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas, where storage is more complex and inventories tend to be lower.
“Asia countries ex-China with available data typically report somewhat lower pre-shock refined oil products stocks,” Goldman Sachs adds in the report.
The firm notes that these thinner buffers leave the region exposed as imports slow. While some countries can lean on domestic refining or stored crude, others remain dependent on incoming cargoes that are now disrupted.
- Goldman Sachs on heavy reliance on Persian Gulf supplies
A second layer of risk comes from import dependence. The report shows that several Asian economies source a large share of refined products and crude from the Persian Gulf, making them vulnerable to any prolonged disruption.
Data on page 4 indicates that countries in the sample, accounting for about one third of global refined product demand, typically rely on the Persian Gulf for around half of their supply. In markets such as South Korea and Singapore, the dependence rises to nearly three quarters.
“Among countries with substantial imports from the Persian Gulf, Asia stands out,” Goldman Sachs says.
This concentration means even partial disruption has an outsized effect. The brokerage points out that while alternative imports from regions such as Russia and Brazil have helped in the short term, they are unlikely to fully offset a sustained drop in Gulf flows.
- Goldman Sachs on imports falling sharply towards end-March
The report identifies late March as a turning point when the flow of tankers from the Middle East to Asia began to weaken sharply. A chart on page 5 shows a steep drop in exports loaded from the Persian Gulf, while imports into Asia followed with a lag.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Asia’s net oil imports had fallen by about 9 million barrels per day by the end of March compared with earlier levels. This decline was driven largely by reduced crude flows.
“Asia net oil imports decreased by 9mb/d by March-end, implying a rapidly increasing hit to foreign supplies,” the firm adds.
While some countries managed to cushion the initial impact by sourcing oil from outside the Gulf or curbing exports, the brokerage suggests those measures may not hold if disruptions continue.
- Goldman Sachs on price surge led by diesel and jet fuel
The tightening supply has already translated into sharp price moves across key fuels. The report’s pricing section shows that diesel and jet fuel have recorded the steepest gains globally.
The report indicates increase of about $130 to $140 per barrel, equivalent to roughly 150 percent, with Asia seeing sharper spikes than other regions.
“Diesel and jet fuel prices have rallied most,” Goldman Sachs adds.
The brokerage adds that price moves are not just reflecting current shortages but also precautionary buying. Wealthier countries have been able to bid aggressively for available cargoes, adding to upward pressure.
This dynamic is also affecting countries that are not directly reliant on the Gulf but depend on trade partners that are exposed, creating second-order effects across global markets.
- Goldman Sachs on early signs of rationing and industrial disruption
Beyond data and prices, Goldman Sachs tracks real-world signals that point to tightening availability. The report compiles instances of fuel rationing and industrial slowdowns across multiple countries.
On page 8, examples include fuel sales being restricted in parts of Asia, governments imposing consumption controls, and petrochemical plants cutting output due to feedstock shortages.
“Thailand and India were featured the most in news on fuel rationing,” Goldman Sachs says.
The report also notes that companies have begun adjusting operations. For instance, petrochemical producers in South Korea and Japan have reduced output as access to naphtha becomes uncertain.
Governments are responding with measures focused on transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel, including caps on purchases and emergency declarations in some regions.
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs presents a layered view of a market under strain, where tight inventories, heavy import dependence, and falling supply flows are converging at once. The report suggests that while short-term adjustments have helped soften the initial blow, the margin for error is narrowing, particularly in Asia. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, the combination of declining stocks, rising prices, and visible stress in fuel availability could intensify in the weeks ahead, with petrochemical feedstocks remaining the most vulnerable segment.