The prices of gold and silver are expected to rise due to ongoing demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless peace is achieved and trade wars are settled. This is what the Economic Survey 2025-26 presented by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman during the Budget Session of Parliament on January 29, 2026, states.
Gold and silver prices have already run up a lot. Gold is up by 100% while silver has jumped over 260% in the last one-year.
Today’s surge in gold and silver prices followed President Trump’s comments on the US dollar’s decline to four-year lows. The US dollar index has decreased by close to 11% over the past year, suggesting that the US administration is willing to accept a weaker currency to enhance the competitiveness of American exports.
Geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening U.S. dollar were also factors behind the last major surge in gold prices, but a distinguishing feature of the current rally is the unprecedented pace of gold purchases by central banks. Trump’s tariff announcements have triggered fears of trade wars among nations.
The sharp spike in gold and silver prices has raised big concerns amongst investors, economists and traders. Some are of the view that there is a big correction pending in these precious metals, while others believe that the rally has just begun.
Will Prices Keep Rising
Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in the parliament today, expects gold and silver prices to remain firm despite the big gains. The statement reads—The prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are likely to continue increasing due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved.
However, the World Bank’s Commodity Prices Outlook, October 2025, report has a different take. According to the report, global commodity prices are expected to decline by approximately 7 per cent in FY27, primarily driven by subdued crude oil prices amid oversupply.
The Economic Survey 2025-26 is not very confident of this and believes that geopolitics may come in the way of this prediction on commodity prices.
Still, the World Bank report is positive on gold and silver prices going higher. For precious metals, further escalation of geopolitical tensions or policy uncertainty could lift gold and silver prices above forecasts, says the report.
As far as the prices of base metals are concerned, the Economic Survey 2025-26 expects prices of iron, copper, and aluminium to increase moderately. The Economic Survey 2025-26 has a special mention of copper. It says, in the case of copper, both demand pressures, especially given its usage for green technology and data centres, and supply disruptions might keep its price elevated.
Gold, Silver Rates Today
Gold and silver prices have increased by over 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively, on Thursday, with gold now trading at $5,555 and silver at approximately $120. This shift has led to a further decline in the gold-to-silver ratio, which currently stands at 46. Notably, in January 2025, this ratio exceeded 100, while the long-term average hovers around 70.
In the Indian markets, MCX Gold futures trade higher at around 8%, with the LTP of 02 APR 2026 contract at Rs 1,91,166. MCX Silver futures trades higher at around 6%, with the LTP of 05 MAR 2026 contract at Rs 4,07,560. Over the last 12 months, gold has been up by 100%, while the YTD return is 29%. Over the last 12 months, silver has been up by 290%, while the YTD return is 58%.