$4,300 to $6,300 an Ounce: Which bank has the most bullish gold forecast for 2026?

First, the Iran war caused a surge in oil prices, which led to rising inflation, and now, with the expectation of a rate hike from the US Fed, the world’s top investment banks are readjusting their forecasts, with mixed signals.

A hawkish Federal Reserve, fading ETF demand, and prevailing geopolitical tensions have prompted several institutions to cut their gold price targets, even as some remain bullish on the metal’s longer-term prospects.

Most institutions are optimistic about gold’s long-term outlook, citing easing tensions in the Middle East and lower oil prices as factors reducing inflation concerns. However, the Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone at its most recent meeting, raising expectations that interest rates will remain high for longer and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Here are what top Wall Street firms are forecasting about gold prices:

UBS — Price Target Cut

In May, UBS scaled back their year-end forecast for gold to USD 5,500 an ounce, from USD 5,900. However, they still hold the view that the precious metal will regain momentum after recent setbacks, climbing from its current level around USD 4,490 (in May) and topping its prior record high around USD 5,400 from earlier this year.

In their note, UBS says, “We believe that as evidence mounts later in the year that higher energy prices have not generated large second-round effects, the Fed will start to adopt a more dovish tone. Our base case is that the Fed will cut rates at its December policy meeting, followed by further easing in March 2027.”

Morgan Stanley

Meanwhile, gold may struggle to reach Morgan Stanley’s $5,200 per ounce target in the second half of the year without significant ETF inflows, according to the bank’s commodity strategists, as reported by SeekingAlpha.

“While central bank gold buying may resume regardless, ETF flows are more sensitive to changes in rate expectations,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. “The missing piece is ETF demand, which is likely to remain sensitive to the Fed path, real yields, and the dollar.”

Deutsche Bank — Price Target Cut

Deutsche Bank AG has cut its gold price forecasts by up to 22%, reflecting increased investor caution regarding US monetary policy and declining demand for gold.

The new projections set gold prices at $4,300 per ounce for Q3 (down over 20% from previous estimates) and $4,800 for Q4 (a 17% decrease), according to analyst Michael Hsueh. Despite these reductions, the forecasts still suggest a price increase from current levels below $4,100, though the outlook is significantly less optimistic than prior estimates.

Bank of America — Price Target Cut

Bank of America, previously optimistic about gold prices reaching $6,000 an ounce by spring, has revised its short-term outlook due to recent market corrections, as noted by metals research team leader Michael Widmer, as reported by Kitco.

“Hitting our $6,000/oz target looks unlikely for now. But the ongoing U.S. macro combination of high deficits, lack of fiscal consolidation and resulting funding needs — the premise behind our original bullish gold call — suggests there is still fuel in the tank for gold to rally again over the longer term,” the bank said in its latest precious metals report.

In June 2025, when gold prices were $3,330 per ounce, after rising 40% in the past year, Bank of America predicted that prices will reach $4,000 per ounce the following year. Currently, gold prices are around $4,100.

However, Bank of America analysts indicated that geopolitical wars are not the primary reason for gold’s potential increase, noting that while gold is viewed as a safe haven during crises, such conflicts do not serve as long-term price growth drivers.

Goldman Sachs — Price Target Cut

Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end gold price forecast downward by $500 per ounce — from $5,400 to $4,900 — reflecting the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will not ease rates in 2026.

Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven indicated that while gold is still expected to appreciate in the second half of the year, the gains are now expected to be less pronounced than earlier predictions, as reported by Bloomberg.

Two key factors are behind the downgrade. First, Goldman Sachs Research no longer expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates in 2026. David Mericle, chief US economist, has pushed his projection for the final two rate cuts in this cycle to June and December 2027 — moved from December 2026 and March 2027 previously.

Second, the outlook was downgraded due to a reduced forecast for inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, directly linked to the delayed rate cut expectations.

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan Global Research is not giving up on gold just yet, projecting an average price of $6,000 per ounce by the end of Q4 2026, rising further to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2027. That means investors could potentially see a 50% gain from current levels of $4,000 by year-end, if J.P. Morgan’s thesis plays out.

Citigroup — Price Target Cut

Citigroup’s commodities research team cut its gold price target for the next three months to $4,000 per ounce from $4,300, with analysts citing improving macro conditions and a less supportive demand backdrop as the key reasons, according to a research note published Monday, as reported by Kitco.

Citi pointed to a combination of factors, including stabilizing real yields, a stronger short-term dollar bias, and weakening safe-haven premiums amid easing geopolitical tensions. The analysts also noted that physical gold demand from central banks and ETF inflows have moderated, taking some steam out of the rally. “Near-term upside looks capped unless we see a fresh shock,” they said.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Gold price forecasts cited are sourced from publicly available analyst notes and media reports. Actual prices may vary significantly. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.