GMR Airports is getting attention from brokerages as its airport portfolio expands while businesses beyond passenger traffic become a bigger part of the growth story. Brokerages are betting on multiple growth triggers. The reports point to growth from airport operations, commercial activities and new airports, while taking cognizance of near-term traffic weakness.
Emkay Research is focusing on non-aeronautical revenue, airport land development and the company’s expanding portfolio. Macquarie sees a dual-track business model supported by improving profitability and passenger mix, while JM Financial expects the recent softness in traffic to ease towards the end of the calendar year.
Emkay sees GMR Airports building a bigger business beyond passenger traffic
Emkay said GMR Airports is moving beyond the traditional airport model by expanding its non-aeronautical and adjacency businesses. The brokerage said the company is taking greater control of activities such as duty-free, cargo, car parking and retail across its airport portfolio.
“The GAL platform provides GMR with a dedicated vehicle to scale and monetize non-aero opportunities across its airport network,” Emkay said.
The brokerage said GMR Airports assumed full control of duty-free operations at Delhi and Hyderabad airports and cargo operations at Delhi Airport during FY26. Revenue from the standalone GAL platform rose to Rs 4,200 crore in FY26 from Rs 1,300 crore in FY25, according to Emkay.
Emkay has initiated coverage on GMR Airports with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 120, implying about 25% upside.
Macquarie backs GMR’s dual-track airport business
Macquarie said the company’s investment case extends beyond the performance of its core airport operations. The brokerage sees GMR as combining airport operations with commercial opportunities linked to passengers and airport infrastructure.
“As the only listed Indian airport operator, we like GMR for its dual-track business model with improving profitability, simplified structure, and high-quality passenger mix,” Macquarie said.
Macquarie has an ‘Outperform’ rating on GMR Airports with a 12-month target price of Rs 120. Its report puts the 12-month total shareholder return at 29%.
The brokerage expects the company’s revenue and profitability to increase through FY29E, supported by its airport portfolio and the expansion of commercial activities around those assets.
JM Financial sees passenger traffic weakness lasting until November
JM Financial said GMR handled 9.44 million passengers across its airports excluding Cebu in August, up about 1% year-on-year. Including the recently added Nagpur and Bhogapuram airports, the reported growth remained positive, but organic passenger traffic declined 2.6% year-on-year.
“Passenger traffic would remain soft till Nov’26 and improve in Dec’26 owing to favourable base effect stemming from the Indigo airline crisis in late-CY25,” JM Financial said.
The brokerage said domestic passenger traffic was the main source of weakness, while international traffic remained relatively steady. JM Financial expects traffic growth to improve from December as the comparison base becomes more favourable.
JM Financial has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on GMR Airports with a target price of Rs 115, implying 23.7% upside.
Emkay sees airport land creating another revenue stream
Emkay said GMR Airports has around 3,003 acres of commercial land across its five Indian airport assets, of which 552 acres have already been monetised. Around 2,451 acres remain available for monetisation, giving the company another source of potential revenue.
“Airport land in India is allotted to private airport operators under concession agreements to enhance overall project economics,” Emkay said.
The brokerage said GMR has started moving beyond simply leasing airport land and is developing commercial properties itself. Projects include Aerocity One in Delhi and GMR Interchange in Hyderabad.
GMR Airports earned about Rs 980 crore in lease income from monetised airport land in FY26, with Delhi contributing the bulk of the income, according to Emkay.
Macquarie sees improving profitability as passenger mix strengthens
Macquarie’s estimates show revenue increasing from Rs 10,410 crore in FY26A to Rs 22,600 crore in FY29E. EBITDA is projected to rise from Rs 5,760 crore to Rs 9,110 crore over the same period.
The brokerage also expects adjusted profit to increase from Rs 180 crore in FY26A to Rs 2,550 crore by FY29E. Its investment fundamentals indicate that profitability should improve as the company scales its airport platform.
Macquarie said GMR’s high-quality passenger mix is an important part of its investment case, alongside improving profitability and the company’s simplified structure.
JM Financial sees international traffic supporting non-aero revenue
JM Financial said international traffic at GMR’s key domestic airports remained relatively stable in August even as domestic traffic weakened. The brokerage noted that international passengers generally spend more, which can support non-aeronautical revenue.
At Delhi Airport, passenger traffic increased 2.7% year-on-year in August. Hyderabad traffic declined 11.5%, while Goa traffic fell 22.8%, according to JM Financial.
The brokerage said Hyderabad had reported a year-on-year decline in passenger traffic for the seventh consecutive month and warned that prolonged weakness could affect profitability at the PAT-positive airport.
Emkay sees strong aviation growth supporting the airport portfolio
Emkay said India’s aviation market has substantial room for expansion because air travel penetration remains low compared with several other major markets. The brokerage expects rising incomes and improving connectivity to support higher travel frequency over the longer term.
India recorded only 0.13 air trips per capita in 2024, compared with 0.58 in China, 0.84 in Thailand and 1.31 in Malaysia, according to Emkay. The brokerage expects airport passenger traffic to continue growing as air travel becomes more widely used.
Emkay also said GMR Airports has a diversified portfolio across India and international markets, with Bhogapuram and Nagpur adding to the company’s airport network.
Macquarie sees GMR’s airport portfolio driving earnings growth
Macquarie’s investment fundamentals show revenue growth continuing through FY29E, with EBITDA rising alongside the expansion of the business. The brokerage estimates EBITDA growth of 12% in FY27E, 16.5% in FY28E and 16.4% in FY29E.
Macquarie also expects earnings per share to rise from Rs 0.7 in FY27E to Rs 2.4 in FY29E. Its estimates point to a substantial improvement in profitability as newer assets and commercial businesses contribute to the company’s financial performance.
The brokerage has retained its ‘Outperform’ rating and Rs 120 target price.
JM Financial expects the traffic recovery to begin from December
JM Financial expects passenger traffic growth to remain under pressure through November because of the impact of the West Asia crisis. The brokerage expects growth to rebound from December because of a favourable base effect linked to the IndiGo airline crisis in late CY25.
Bhogapuram commenced commercial operations on 17 August and handled 0.11 million passengers during August, while Nagpur handled 0.22 million passengers, according to JM Financial.
The brokerage said the recent weakness in the stock price has largely factored in the softer passenger traffic and has therefore retained its ‘Buy’ rating with a Rs 115 target.
Emkay expects cash generation to bring down debt
Emkay expects GMR Airports’ operating cash flow to grow at a 17% CAGR between FY26 and FY29E, supported by improving profitability and healthy cash conversion. The brokerage expects limited near-term capital expenditure across most of the portfolio apart from Hyderabad and selected expansion projects.
“Given strong operating cash generation and relatively moderate capex requirements, we expect the company to generate healthy free cash flows, supporting a gradual reduction in finance costs over the coming years,” Emkay said.
Emkay expects net debt-to-EBITDA to decline from 6.7 times in FY26 to 4.9 times by FY29E. The brokerage expects stronger cash generation and moderate capital expenditure to support this improvement.
GMR Airports has several growth levers beyond core airport operations
The brokerage reports point to three different but connected parts of GMR Airports’ business. Emkay is focused on non-aeronautical activities, land monetisation and the long-term expansion of Indian aviation. Macquarie is focusing on the company’s dual-track model, improving profitability and passenger mix.
JM Financial is more cautious on the immediate passenger traffic trend, particularly at Hyderabad and Goa, but expects the weakness to ease from December.
GMR Airports revenue mix
| Revenue stream | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
| Aero | Rs 1,032.8 crore | Rs 1,744.1 crore | Rs 2,493.6 crore | Rs 3,028.5 crore | Rs 4,954.6 crore |
| Non-aero | Rs 1,917.5 crore | Rs 2,928.9 crore | Rs 3,535.7 crore | Rs 3,991.2 crore | Rs 4,459.4 crore |
| Adjacencies | Rs 1,013 crore | Rs 1,346.9 crore | Rs 1,243.4 crore | Rs 1,641.3 crore | Rs 3,720.8 crore |
| City-side developments | Rs 637.5 crore | Rs 590.2 crore | Rs 851.4 crore | Rs 1,019.9 crore | Rs 978.2 crore |
| EPC and others | Nil | Rs 63.7 crore | Rs 630.5 crore | Rs 733.4 crore | Rs 709 crore |
| Total | Rs 4,600.7 crore | Rs 6,673.8 crore | Rs 8,754.6 crore | Rs 10,414.3 crore | Rs 14,822 crore |
Source Emkay Research and company data.
Conclusion
Across the reports, GMR Airports’ growth story extends well beyond passenger numbers. The company is adding new airports, expanding commercial activities around existing assets and developing its airport land, while the traffic trend remains an important near-term variable.
Disclaimer: This article is based on research reports published by Emkay Research, Macquarie Equity Research and JM Financial Institutional Securities and presents their respective views, estimates, ratings and target prices on GMR Airports. Emkay Research has assigned a ‘Buy’ rating with a Rs 120 target price, Macquarie has an ‘Outperform’ rating with a Rs 120 target price, and JM Financial has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a Rs 115 target price. The brokerage estimates and expectations discussed in the article are subject to changes in passenger traffic, airport tariffs, regulatory decisions, concession terms, capital expenditure, operating performance, economic conditions and other factors. Readers should review the complete research reports, company disclosures and subsequent developments before making any investment decision.