Warsaw led a fall on Central European bourses on Thursday due to gloom and doom on global stock markets amid risk aversion and deep concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war.
Warsaw led a fall on Central European bourses on Thursday due to gloom and doom on global stock markets amid risk aversion and deep concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war. Warsaw’s blue-chip equities index fell 1.9 percent by 0931 GMT, while the Budapest bourse’s main index plunged 1.2 percent, relinquishing some of its recent sharp gains.
“Today we expect similar dynamics (as yesterday) because western European stock futures show a fall of over 1 percent,” brokerage Equilor said in an early morning note. Oil prices fell on Thursday as stock markets slid and as traders eyed a meeting of the oil bloc expected to result in a supply cut, aimed at draining a glut that has pulled down crude prices by 30 percent since October. While stocks eased across the board on Central European markets, currencies were little changed in early trade.
The Polish zloty shed 0.1 percent to trade at 4.2915 against the euro at 0931 GMT. The Hungarian forint was also down 0.1 percent at 323.63 to the euro. According to a fresh Reuters poll released on Thursday, the Czech crown is expected to gain the most among Central European currencies next year, helped by the Czech central bank’s anti-inflationary policy. While global markets fret about a global economic slowdown this year, data released in recent weeks in Central Europe continue to indicate strong growth.
Hungary expects its economy to expand by 4.3-4.5 percent this year and above 4 percent next year as well. At the same time, inflation fears have receded, which has helped Polish and Hungarian central banks maintain their dovish stance even though their Czech and Romanian counterparts have already started tightening policy. Polish Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski repeated on Wednesday his long-standing opinion that there was no need to raise interest rates in 2019.
The bank kept interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent. “Overall, there is no change in the MPC policy outlook, in our view. Interest rates are going to stay on hold at least until the very end of 2019, and maybe even longer,” Santander Bank Polska said in a note.
“The NBP believes its policy stance is appropriate, and indicates that risks from energy price hikes have abated somewhat. We still see no room for rate hikes next year,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. Hungary will sell government bonds at a regular biweekly auction on Thursday. In Romania, the government is selling Sept. 2031 bonds. “This is a rather illiquid paper, and the finance ministry could sell less than planned as demand is likely to be limited,” ING said in a research note. “Average yields could print near secondary market mid of 5.30 percent.”